Super Bowl LX Projected to Reach $1.76 Billion in Bets

On Sunday, February 8, Super Bowl LX will kick off in Santa Clara, California. Weather forecasts are already in, the teams are preparing for the night, but ticket prices are plummeting. Reports indicate some tickets have fallen by as much as 30%, and considering Santa Clara, home of the 49ers, is not a relatively big NFL stadium, we could be looking at lower attendance figures for this legendary night. On the other hand, the betting volume is rising at an exponential rate, and is expected to smash the record betting handles calculated last year.

NFL betting is a booming industry, and as the season culminates in possibly the most highly anticipated game of the year, the massive trajectory of wagers goes in all directions. And even ones that have nothing to do with the game itself. Last year’s Super Bowl was dominated by proposition peer to peer wagers – though we can’t really call them that, as they were peer contracts. We are, of course, talking about prediction markets, which shot up from alternative real world event betting exchanges to the latest hype in sports betting.

This year, among bets between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots winning the Championship, we also have bets on which song Bad Bunny will open with at halftime, and even wagers on whether Jeff Bezos, Sydney Sweeney or Elon Musk will attend the Big Game.

Betting Projections for Super Bowl LX

The industry forecasts are estimating a betting handle of $1.76 billion for Super Bowl LX, which would make it the biggest Super Bowl betting handle ever recorded. Last year, the handle was estimated at around $1.4 billion, by the American Gaming Association. And the year before, the estimate was $1.25 billion. Moneyline bets, totals, spread bets, and player props contributed the most, with an especially large focus on Anytime Touchdown Scorer and Passing Yards totals. Now there are many reasons for this gradual expansion, and it is not just a product of inflation.

More states are legalizing sports betting, and while the spread of legal betting has slowed considerably in the last few years, it has not stopped. Since sports betting was legalized at a federal level back in 2018, 15+ legalized betting by the end of 2019, and that figure jumped up again to 30+ by the end of 2021. The most recent state to join the bandwagon was Missouri, which launched legal betting back in December of 2025. They bring the tally up to 39 states, and this year we could see:

• Hawaii
• Texas
• South Carolina
• Minnesota

All push for potential sports betting bills. When events like the Super Bowl come up, they represent a massive opportunity for states like Missouri. Launching legal sports betting in time to catch this event is a savvy decision, as it produces extremely high yields for states through betting taxes.

Background to Super Bowl LX

The Seattle Seahawks are the moneyline favourites to win here. With a powerful 14-3 record in the regular season, they muscled their way through the playoffs, beating the Eagles, 49ers, and Rams to reach the Super Bowl for the second time in their history. Following years of missing out on the playoffs, the Seahawks found their rhythm, with wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba leading the NFL for receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. They have also built a formidable defence, and they will not be easy for the Patriots to break through.

Tom Brady will hope that the Patriots can repeat Super Bowl XLIX, where they overcame the Seattle Seahawks 28-24. The Patriots enter this Super Bowl as the underdogs, but they will fancy their chances. They beat the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos to reach the Super Bowl. This is their chance, just days away, where they can win an unprecedented 7th Super Bowl title. They have the most Super Bowl appearances, are tied with 6 wins with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but they also lead the chart for the most Super Bowl losses.

It will be a tantalizing game, and the betting volume is still rising tremendously in the days preceding the big game.

Wildest Bets on the Super Bowl

Much of the betting buzz around this Super Bowl is coming from prediction markets. Last year, an estimated $1.1 billion was wagered on Polymarket – back then, Polymarket was not available in the US. Over $110 was wagered at Kalshi on futures, though there was no official data on how much was spent in total on the big game. This year, prediction markets are going to replicate that tremendous frenzy, and they are very likely to smash those figures.

There are more legally recognized prediction markets in the US now than there were a year ago, and far more sports-related contracts. In 2025, Kalshi, one of the top prediction markets, even extended its offering to provide NFL parlay-style contracts. Props bets and player contracts cropped up in the dozens, and the platforms created a pretty comprehensive array of opportunities for sports fans to make detailed predictions.

But, like last year, there are also loads of contracts that have nothing to do with sports. The real world event contracts, which can relate to anything, from how many times Elon Musk will tweet next month to what price Bitcoin will close at the end of the week, are the predictions that attract many niche bettors. Already, there are Super Bowl prediction markets relating to:

• Bad Bunny’s Halftime Opener: $2.5+ million (Kalshi)
• Which Brands will Advertise During the Big Game: $2.4+ million (Kalshi)
• Who Will Attend the Big Game: $1.1+ million (Kalshi)
• Who Will Perform at the Super Bowl: $750,000+ (Kalshi) $1+ million (Polymarket)

These are the market volumes for the top non-game related props, at the time of writing. Naturally, as the game draws closer, those numbers will fill up, and the props will become more random, as public hype around the game heats to a boiling point. Just for reference – the open market on the Champions of the Super Bowl currently has a volume of $160 million on Kalshi, and just under $700 million at Polymarket.

A Reflection of Change in the US Betting Landscape

Prediction markets are expected to take up a good chunk of the betting handle for this year’s event. These platforms are available in all 50 states, giving them a large advantage over sportsbooks which can only operate within legal states – and ones where they can obtain licenses. Because in some, like Rhode Island, there are partial or full state monopolies on sports betting.

In California, where the Super Bowl will be hosted, sports betting is not legal. So for travelling sports fans, bets must be placed well before they physically enter the Golden State. Unless, that is, they are relying on prediction markets, which offer an alternative. However, for those fans it means that a lot of the bets that they would place otherwise would be cut off. They cannot place live bets at their sportsbooks because they cannot beat the geolocation trackers in these apps, and thus cannot access the sportsbooks until they return to a legal sports betting state. That means, no live bets or cash out.

This year also has loads more prediction markets than last year. Especially after Fanatics launched its very own prediction market, followed by the entry of DraftKings Predictions and FanDuel Predicts. The sportsbooks may not be available in California, but their prediction markets are.

While prediction markets have found great popularity across the US, there are several loopholes in the service that cannot match what you get at a sportsbook. The markets use peer to peer betting models. You need peer liability to fund payouts – Kalshi and the other operators do not pay you out of their own pockets. Therefore, you need people to buy the opposite line of your bet, and this can create a problem in niche player props.

It also presents an inflexibility for parlays or live bets. Because you can only place a multiple leg contract (like Seahawks Moneyline + Over 25.5 Points), if someone buys the opposite line (Any outcome except Seahawks Moneyline + Under 25.5 Points). How many buyers will take up bets on very high or very low spreads, or even bet against very obscure player props.

What To Expect

Would it be extremely foolish to suggest fans are not buying Super Bowl tickets because they cannot bet in California? It is a far stretch. The ticket sales shortage is probably better explained by the political climate in the US right now, the storms that have swept the country since January, and the rising cost of living, potentially with a fear of the partial US government shutdown signalling more turbulence up ahead.

The betting handle on this event, at its current trajectory, looks like it will set a new record for US sports betting on a single event. It will be a massive blend of contract trading, peer to peer betting, fantasy Pick’em contests, and conventional sports bets. Normally, this would be the kind of event that you can only see getting beaten at the following Super Bowl. But this year, with the US hosting the FIFA World Cup, there is every chance that the international soccer competition will sweep in and create a similar, if not larger, frenzy among bettors in the US.