Polymarket Returns to the US in Time for the 2025 NFL Season

Nothing in the US sports betting industry happens by coincidence, and the re-entry of Polymarket in time for the 2025 NFL Kickoff game is a calculated decision. Polymarket got the go ahead from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, CFTC, on the 3rd of September. After spending $112 million to acquire Florida-based derivatives exchange, QCEX, and supporters in high positions, Polymarket is set to return.

It also highlights a shift in the NFL betting trends, as prediction markets and contract event betting is on the up and up. Just looking at the Super Bowl LIX in February, the total legal wagering handle for sportsbooks was around $1.5 billion, while prediction markets are estimated to have handled $555 million. Polymarket missed out on that opportunity, having been forced to operate overseas from 2022, but now they are back, and the industry is poised for a major shake up.

Polymarket Background and Prediction Market Model

Founded in 2020, Polymarket is a crypto-first prediction market exchange. The platform surged in popularity during the 2020 US elections, and its forecasts were cited as even more accurate than many traditional polls. Polymarket rose in popularity quickly, and its ascent attracted the interest of the CFTC.

After extensive reviews and legal tussles, the CFTC finally determined that the Polymarket event contracts were too similar to financial swaps. Financial swaps are trades where two parties can exchange cash flows over time, based on an underlying asset or index.

Polymarket uses binary bets on outcomes, which are run on cash flows and revolve around parties exchanging contracts. The ruling determined Polymarket violated the Commodity Exchange Act. In that they did not have the permissions to provide these games in the US. In January 2022, Polymarket settled for $1.4 million with the CFTC and then blocked US members from its platform. It went overseas, where it could only be accessed by US gamers who circumvented the geofence.

The Return of Polymarket

To comply with the CFTC regulations, Polymarket acquired QCEX back in July, and obtained the necessary infrastructure needed to operate in the US. The CFTC closed its investigations into Polymarket at that point, and Polymarket made a few major marketing moves.

Former CEO of PayPal, Peter Thiel, led a funding round in June that raised $200 million for Polymarket and valued the company at $1 billion. Donald Trump Jr joined the Polymarket advisory board in August and also invested in the company through his venture capital firm, 1789 Capital. Collabs with X (Twitter) and AI-powered analytics from xAI chatbot Grok gave Polymarket more high profile partnerships.

With the CFTC finally approving the return of the crypto prediction market exchange, it seems Polymarket is in pole position to capitalize on the upcoming NFL season. Especially as the US betting populous turns its interest towards event contract betting.

The Players in the US Prediction Market Industry

There are nowhere near as many prediction market exchanges as online sportsbooks, the space is a lot newer than that. The biggest player besides Polymarket is Kalshi, a financial exchange that is based in New York. Kalshi was founded in 2018, and was valued in June 2025 at $2 billion. Also, Donald Trump Jr joined the team as the strategic advisor in January of 2025. The other big competitor is Crypto.com, a Singapore cryptocurrency exchange.

UnderDog Prediction Markets

But we could be at the start of a momentous shift, as Underdog Fantasy partnered in August with Crypto.com to launch prediction markets on its app. The product would be legal in 16 states, and is intended to be a hybrid of DFS and crypto based prediction markets. So that means a greater emphasis on player props, outcomes, and key game statistics.

FanDuel’s Venture into Prediction Markets

At the end of the same month, FanDuel announced a partnership with CME Group, with the goal of making prediction market products of its own in the near future. CME Group stated that these may resemble “traditional prediction markets” over the sports/DFS hybrid that Underdog is preparing.

The idea would be to give FanDuel members opportunities to get in on the prediction market frenzy. And with such an established institution like FanDuel dipping into prediction markets, this could really have a major impact on the future of sports betting.

Main Differences in How You Bet

From a customer’s standpoint, the betting experience on a prediction market is worlds apart from a traditional online sportsbook. It perhaps most closely resembles futures betting. And instead of doing it at a sportsbook, think of peer to peer wagers on a betting exchange.

Sports markets are not as vast as at a sportsbook, and it is rare to find markets with alternative lines.

The basic principle is that each wager is a 2-way market, with Yes and No bets. Instead of placing a stake, you buy contracts. The price of both Yes and No must equal $1, so a 50-50 bet would have 50c for Yes and No. If the markets are lopsided, like 70% on yes, then it would be priced at 70c, and the corresponding No bet would be priced at 30c.

Prediction markets are like swaps in that these prices are not fixed. They fluctuate depending on the market consensus and buyers at any given price. You don’t have to wait until the event concludes either, as some markets have sell back options where you can effectively cash out your contracts.

NFL Prediction Market Betting

The most prominent example for sports bettors is this year’s Super Bowl LIX. Kalshi dominated the prediction market scene, with bets on practically every aspect of the big game. From who will be the headline act (before it was revealed) to the outcome of the big game.

But these are not bets you place directly against Polymarket or other prediction market exchanges. These are peer to peer bets, so if you win, you are winning money from the losing bets of your peers. A loss would mean the winners will take your money. The prediction market exchange only takes a small commission on the bets. These types of bets do not have any traditional juice or vig. It does not set the prices, these are determined by the users and the market consensus.

So, traditionally, they won’t offer a wide array of betting props and player bets. And you don’t have parlay betting opportunities either.

What Mainstream Betting Could Look Like in 2026

That is, traditionally speaking. Because Underdog’s hybrid model may bridge some of these gaps. It may deliver something that is a bit more sports inclined than Polymarket or Kalshi. Perhaps the biggest question is whether they can find a way to facilitate parlay bets. After all, parlay betting is one of the biggest parts of the sports betting experience in America.

Parlay betting would be a big step forward for prediction market exchanges. Betting exchanges (P2P betting apps) like ProphetX do not have parlays. But Novig.us, another US betting exchange, introduced parlay bets in November, 2024. So if prediction markets could also leverage some ideas into supporting parlays, it would be a game changer. But that is not the only area they could expand into. Live betting and alternative lines are also big proponents of the sports betting experience.

The structure of prediction markets, and P2P betting relies heavily on user engagement. Without that player engagement, there would be no liability or funds for the exchange to facilitate any peer bets. But the revenue and betting handle figures suggest that these markets are on the rise. With huge engagement, and a frenzy to jump in on the hype, we could see these prediction markets evolve momentously in the coming months.