Near Misses and “Almost” Wins: The Psychology Behind Slot Machines

Historically, near misses have been considered to encourage players to continue their slots gaming. You may fall one symbol short of completing a 2,000x payline or collect 2 out of 3 scatters to trigger a potentially explosive bonus round. The theory is that having come so close to hitting the target will encourage you to carry on playing until you do.

The near miss theory has also given rise to the notion that some video slots may be calibrated to bring you more near hits and close misses. Having a higher number of such close shaves would encourage gamers to keep playing, in spite of losing money, until they land a big win. The win alone may not even pay off half the losses accrued in the meantime, prompting continued spinning, and potentially, incurring greater losses.

How Near Misses Affect Us Psychologically

The notion that near misses inspire players to keep going is one that goes against all rational thought. Just because you had a near miss in your last spin, it will not change the fact that all spins are completely random. Unless you have sticky symbols that stay around for the next spin, it will be fully randomized.

The notion of randomness is quite difficult to grasp and rationalize. In card games, roulette or craps, we can calculate the probability based on the number of outcomes. Probability in roulette is easy to understand, and you don’t need to do excessive calculations to learn a blackjack strategy – it just takes a little time to practice and turn into second nature. However, slots are in a class of their own where probability is concerned.

Slots Odds and Probability

Despite being easy to pick up and play, the odds and probability behind slots are extremely complicated. Even with the simplest example of a 3-reel 3=row slot with 5 paylines (3 horizontal and 2 diagonal), the possible outcomes on a single spin are large. Assume that the 3-reel 5 payline game has 5 different symbols. 9 symbols will fall across the reels (3×3) and each one can have 1 of the 5 possible symbols. That simple game already has over 1.9 million different outcomes (5 to the power of 9).

The probability of any of these 1.9 million outcomes is affected by the paytable. There is a greater chance that you will land a lower-ranking payline than a line of the highest paying symbols. And then we haven’t factored in RTP yet. The Return to Player is a theoretical number that shows how much a slot can pay out over a longer period of time. These values are never 100% as then the casino will not make a profit. Instead, they are usually around 93% up to 99% (for the highest RTP slots).

Probability in Slots Becomes Near-Impossible

The outcomes and probability on slots become all the harder to calculate when extra elements are added to the gameplay. Special symbols, bonus rounds, larger grids, and different game mechanics all impact the probability of each outcome.

Mechanics such as ways pays, Megaways, cascading reels, and multidirectional paylines complicate the system. So do wild symbols, scatters, cash pot symbols, and the addition of bonus spin rounds or dynamic picking game rounds. We have not even factored in how partially completing paylines (landing 2/5 or 3/5) may win partial payouts.

Where Near Misses Come Back Into the Picture

Near misses can give players false hope that luck is turning their way. This response is based on emotion, rather than reason, catching the player’s interest and giving them the stimulus to carry on playing. Sometimes, near misses can pay off, but not in the way that we would like. For example, a 5-reel slot may provide payouts if you land just 4, 3 or even 2 matching symbols across a payline. You missed out on landing all 5, but you got 4 so you will win a little something to reward your effort.

These are good, but they may also be enforcing the false sense that the tide is turning. You were so close in the last round and got a little reward, the slot may just be warming up now. But look closely at the partial payline payout. In many cases, it is usually less than you staked, or just about cuts your losses.

Rationally, it is still considered a loss. However, it may trigger emotional responses for gamers who are deeply immersed in the game, or think that they are getting closer to maxing out the biggest paying symbol.

Are Casino Games Rigged for Near Misses

Licensed online casinos must comply with iGaming legislation and provide a high standard of gaming integrity. The casino operator leases the games from a software developer. Or partners with them. Then, they receive the games and can apply their algorithms, tweak the payouts and the mechanics, to their liking.

These bespoke gaming products are not simply launched on the site after the tweaks have been made. The casino operators must prove that these games are probably fair to play. They do that by hiring approved game testors to try out the games for themselves. The operators need the auditors to give their seal of approval, and then the games can go live.

RNGs and Outlawing Secondary Decision Outcomes

If a game is provably fair to play, it meets the requirements with its Random Number Generators. The games are not rigged to make you lose, or to give you near misses. They are using intricate formulas to generate completely random outcomes each time.

Secondary decision (secondary gamble) is a feature in which players are given a choice following a spin. It can be a bonus round, a gamble feature, or a chance to use any won money to stake a round on a secondary reel. Most gambling authorities agree that these games can be offered, so long as the outcome is not predetermined.

For example, you win $25 in a round of slots and the game offers you a gamble choice: flip a coin. If you flip heads, you will double up your $25 to $50. But tails would mean you lose the $25 you won. The outcome of that coin flip cannot be predetermined. If you decide to flip the coin, the RNGs will need to generate a random outcome after you opt in for the gamble.

Good Practises and Habits for Slots Players

Longtime slots gamers will recognize the ebb and flow in their bankroll and not get too worried if they go 10 rounds without winning a cent. It is all a part of the game, and you never know when you will suddenly hit a jackpot and make it all back. Or better yet, trigger some bonus round to not only bring you in the green but land you in a heap of riches.

These games should only be played for fun and never used to build wealth or gamble money you cannot afford to lose.

Know When to Quit

A lot of gamblers have a tough time calling quits during long gaming sessions. The feeling that the next big win is close and the sunk cost fallacy can be blinding. This slot has already eaten so much of your money, surely you are drawing closer to a mega payout to end on a high.

Unfortunately, that is not the case. Some gamblers have serious problems with calling it a day and ceasing play. They will keep going until they have a gaming balance of 0 or they have spent a tremendous amount of money chasing the jackpot. Spending more time does not necessarily mean losing for all gamers, but for people with addictive gaming habits, it often does. Therefore, setting up reality checks and limiting game time is the perfect way to ensure this does not happen. It is easy to get carried away playing slots, just make sure you don’t get stuck in them.

Managing Your Bankroll

Treat your slots gaming as you would any other expense. It is not the same as shopping or going out to a fancy restaurant, as there is a possibility of ending with more money than you started. Nevertheless, creating a budget that you can afford and allocate on your favorite games is a good way to ensure you don’t waste money needlessly. This can be controlled by setting deposit limits and loss tracking notifications.

Setting how much you will stake for each spin is another key part of managing your money. If you have a tighter budget, don’t set higher stakes otherwise you may only get 10 minutes of gametime. Some games have the option to change your stake across more paylines. If you reduce the number of paylines, you don’t need to spend as much on each round. However, you are sacrificing your possibility of winning by doing so. You should always use all available paylines, and never cut back to meet your allocated budget. If that means fewer spins, which you must accept, or find another game where the minimum stake is lower.

Use Rationale and Not Emotion

The audio and visual effects in slots machines are calibrated to stimulate players. The colors, sounds, and animations are there to attract players and make the games more enjoyable to play. They can have the adverse effect of making near misses feel important, or give you the impression that you are heading towards the jackpot.

These emotional responses can be misleading, making you want to keep playing despite continuously losing. Instead of following those urges, you can switch to demo mode to get your kicks or set a limit with your remaining balance. Only play until you have used $20 more, and then quit. And never be afraid to stop and accept your losses.

Enjoy Your Slots Gaming and Play Responsibly

The notion that near misses in slots can mislead players does not apply to all players. Gamers who show addictive traits are in more danger of following such false illusions. And in many of those cases, the goal is to give up slots forever once they have made it. It is just that one last game – just to win the jackpot.

Slots, like any other casino game, are intended for entertainment purposes. The thrill of risking and winning is extremely satisfying and the only reason why you should play. If you were not risking your money, it would not be gambling.

Plus, there are so many different responsible gambling tools that you can use to curb your spending. So next time you get a near miss, take a second to remember. It has no bearing on the next round. You may hit a 1,000x payout, or the reels may spin out nothing.