The Illusion of Control: How Gamblers Misinterpret Randomness

No strategy or level of skill can guarantee wins in casino games. Even the most proficient gamblers have experienced their fair share of loss, no matter how good they are at their respective games. Understanding this is crucial to enjoying your gaming, as you are under no illusions of guaranteed returns.

Yet our minds can play tricks on us, and occasionally players may belittle the odds and believe they are close to winning big. It is a completely natural part of gambling, but you cannot get ahead of yourself. Here, we will dive into the psychological phenomena that distort our understanding of how odds work. Specifically, we want to analyse the “skill-based” games, which are most often the cause of many gambler’s fallacies.

The Role of Randomness vs Real-Life Probability

The concept of randomness is quite difficult to grasp. It is abstract, and while we can use statistics and probability to determine the likelihood of each possible outcome, anything can happen. Before going into skill-based games, let’s just compare roulette and slots. Two games where you cannot count cards or use a basic strategy to realistically curb the house’s edge. In European roulette, we know there are 37 segments on the wheel, and therefore the chances of the ball landing in any of those are 37 to 1.

Yet if we ran thousands of simulations to determine the odds of winning with each segment, there is a good chance that we will not get a perfect outcome. If you ran 37,000 simulations you wouldn’t necessarily have landed each segment 1,000 times – there will be anomalies and random results that may see some sectors landing more times than others. Assuming the wheel is unbiased, that would give us the assumption that no, not all numbers are equally likely to win. Yet they are.

This is made even more confusing with slots, that use powerful algorithms to generate random outcomes. The only information we have regarding the real-life odds is the RTP, which is calculated by simulating hundreds of thousands of results on a single game. The more simulations, the closer we get to the real picture, but it is still not a completely accurate representation of your chances of winning. The casinos read the statistics from these simulations and use them to gauge the odds on each payline. Statistical anomalies included.

Skill Based Games and Ultimate Strategies

The great appeal of skill based games such as blackjack, video poker, or poker is that you can directly affect the outcome of each hand. You aren’t just staking your money and pressing play. You will need to make a decision in the middle of the round, which can either see you win or lose. Now there are loads of strategies that have calculated all the mathematical possibilities and tell you exactly what to do in any given scenario. You have a value of 11 in blackjack – always double down, without hesitation. In video poker you have drawn 3 cards to a royal flush and a pair? hold the 3 cards to the royal flush without hesitation.

You won’t always win with these strategies. Just take the example of having two 10s in Blackjack. Let’s say you double down on the 11 and the dealer draws a 2. You are stuck with a hand of just 13, and in most scenarios the dealer will beat your hand. The basic blackjack strategy has let you down in that round, yet as an expert player you are not concerned. This is because you know that there will be anomalies where the strategy will fail, but ultimately it should curb the house edge.

As a side note, if you want to quickly master some skill-based games, be sure to check out our following ultimate strategy guides:

• Blackjack
• Video Poker
• Poker

How Chance Affects Games with Element of Control

Casino games are run by chance, and even the most accurate mathematically driven strategies cannot eliminate the risk of losing. The one thing that you can be sure of, is that all casino games, even the ones where you can influence the outcome through your decision making, are all designed to give the house an edge. This house edge is there to give the casino the benefit over players, so that in the long run it will make money. This is necessary for the survival of the casino, as they don’t charge you to play any of the games. You don’t need to pay fees to make deposits, withdraw winnings, or pay commission on your winnings. Unless, that is, there is a rake in a game of poker or you play Banker bets in baccarat, that have commission.

You can reduce this house edge significantly by using a basic strategy, but it will still not turn that edge in your favor. The only way you can do that is by counting cards in blackjack, and if the deck has more high value cards, then you can build an edge. Otherwise, you are still risking your money, and have to take into account that there is still a good possibility that you will not make a profit.

Fallacies Based on the Illusion of Control

We are natural problem solvers and always try to understand things that we cannot explain. However, with casino games, we have to accept that the games are governed by luck and chance. Most players accept this and play to test their luck, in the hope that they may strike gold and come away with some worthy wins. But casino games can play tricks on our minds.

When we come into a winning or losing streak, this suddenly presents us with a strange anomaly. Suddenly, the rounds don’t have a normal win:loss frequency or ratio. This can prompt players into believing the next outcomes have to revert to ensure the statistical probabilities are kept at a balance. You lose 5 straight rounds of video poker, surely a win must come to keep the balance. After all, you are playing at a licensed casino and these games are not rigged.

But this is one of the most damaging gambler’s fallacies. The outcome of each round is always random, and no matter what happened in the previous rounds, the odds do not really change. You are a skilled gamer and use a basic strategy, which should optimise your bankroll, yet it can’t do that if the draws are random.

Fallacies of Control by Game

The skill based strategy in video poker is very simple. You prioritise winning poker hands based on how well they pay out according to the paytable. If you get a winning hand in your initial draw but are close to forming a higher paying hand, the strategy will most likely tell you to ditch the smaller winning hand. Over the course of thousands of rounds, this will most likely pay off as you only need to win the bigger hand a few times to balance out your profit. Yet it can feel counterintuitive at times.

In blackjack, the basic strategy will tell you what action to take depending on your hand and the dealers. It does not mean you will win each time, and sometimes the strategy will lose hands where someone who didn’t use the strategy may win. For example, you are told to stand on 17, which is absolutely logical. But say an inexperienced player decided to hit and drew a 3. They have got a blackjack, in spite of the tremendous odds of going bust.

Even in classic poker strategies, where there are optimal strategies for your raises/calls/folds based on your hand, random results and spoil your chances of winning. You may have 4 to an open ended straight, and get your straight on the Flop. You are in pole position to win, and your opponent only has two pair in the hole. But the Turn and River bring the opponent Three of a Kind, spoiling your straight. The odds are against it, but they got lucky in that round, and there is nothing you can do about it. Unless, that is, you can bluff your opponent out of the win.

Avoiding Illusion of Control Fallacies

The best way to save yourself from the heartache of falling down one of these rabbit holes is to stay in control of your gaming. Online casinos provide you with tools to keep a timer on how much time you play, and also limits to control your spending. You should use these, as well as win and loss markers to keep track of how much you spend during your gaming sessions.

To be successful, you need to know when to quit. Try to exit while you are ahead, and don’t buy into confirmation biases that suggest you can still win more. If you are losing, then decide on a point at which you will stop before going bust. You shouldn’t chase your losses, or just play until you completely deplete your funds. The latter is called the sunk cost fallacy, where you feel compelled to keep spending until what little you have left is completely gone.

Some players find skill based games a lot more fun than games that have no decision making turns. However, you should never assume that you can use skill to get the better of the casino. Play responsibly, and be patient. Wins will come your way, and your job is to figure out when to cash out your chips. If the wins do not come, then take a break, you may find more success when you return later or on another day, with fresh energy.