The Gambler’s Conceit: Overestimating Our Chances of Winning

We all like to imagine winning at the casino or finishing our gaming session on a high, with a noticeably bigger bankroll. Sometimes, that can lead to players deceiving themselves into thinking that they must win in their next gaming session. After all, if you stick to the plan and have set a realistic target – you must win, right?

Experienced gamblers will know that that is not the case. There are no guarantees to win, no matter how low you set the bar or how well you optimize your strategy. Believing that you must win can push players to spend more, or pump in more of their bankroll than originally planned. It can also lead to players making riskier decisions, or deviating from the plan in other ways, none of which are really positive.

Defining the Gambler’s Conceit

The gambler’s conceit has little to do with your gaming strategy. Moreover, it is a feeling of confidence that you have both before and during gaming. The feeling that you play smarter and know how to avoid losing heavily. The most common phrase associated with gambler’s conceit is:

“I know when to quit”

You have calculated your bankroll, planned out your gaming session, and have a fault-proof target that is both attainable and realistic. Sure, you have done all the groundwork needed to get ahead and make the most of any good variance that comes your way. Yet assuming that you will reach that target – or even quit when you reach it – is dangerous. The majority of gamblers have win limits. And even those who have one and hit it may not want to stop right away.

Reasons Why Gambler’s Don’t Quit Early

The most unfortunate, and frequent, reason a lot of players fail to quit while they are ahead is because they reach their targets, or come into big money, too quickly. Imagine a newcomer sitting down to play a slot machine, and after their 10th spin, they trigger a bonus round.

These bonus rounds are designed to bring huge prizes and overload your body’s rewards system. At the end of the round, the player may have pocketed a small fortune. Most newcomers in that situation wouldn’t be able to appreciate how rare that sudden huge influx of cash was. There can’t be any harm in trying a few more rounds.

And there wouldn’t, if you think of trying another 10 rounds, and then quit. But as the bankroll starts chipping away again, the player’s psychological biases kick up. Ok, keep going until you trigger another bonus round – then you should be alright. Or the player may feel, I don’t need another miracle, I just need to get my winning back up to a clean 100% profit (doubling up the original bankroll).

These dangerous notions can see the player eating through their entire bonus winnings. And then when they hit square one, they won’t be happy at all. Even though they technically haven’t lost anything, they will feel the gambler’s remorse.

It is never easy to judge the exact maximum your bankroll will hit. The player may hit another bonus round, and end up with three times their cash. But even then won’t necessarily quit while they are so far ahead.

Conceit and Chasing Losses

Smart players know better than to chase losses, but we tend to think of this fallacy in its extremes. Such as when you are down half your bankroll, and you desperately want to make up the distance. Or, if you have hit the peak of your winnings, and then find yourself back to square one after a string of losses.

But these scenarios do not happen from one minute to the next. Rising stress levels and fatigue can cause gamers to play more dangerously. Most of the time, your losses will build slowly, and you may not even notice if you don’t check your bankroll after each round. Plus, some games, such as slots, are designed to give you dopamine hits even when you don’t win. The close losses or near wins can still feel like wins, as the celebratory chimes ring out and the game lets you know how close you were to hitting a big win.

During your gaming, you need to recognise these signs early. Don’t think about the money lost in previous rounds. Think about your bankroll at that given moment in time. Should you decide to keep playing, do so with the knowledge that you may not be able to bring your bankroll back up to the level you are at right now.

Gambler’s Conceit with Jackpots

Some bets require a huge deal of luck to win, and you cannot realistically expect to win them. Such as betting on the lottery, or when you sit down to play a progressive jackpot slot. The allure of hitting that rare jackpot and winning life-changing sums of money is a real motivational booster. But your chances of winning are so small, that it is virtually impossible to factor in a jackpot win into your gaming sessions. Unless, you intend to play tens of thousands of spins at the progressive slot. Or, buy hundreds of thousands of lottery tickets.

Yet the conceit works a little differently here. The idea is not “I will keep playing til I hit it big”. You could be playing the lottery for decades without hitting a jackpot. Instead, our conceit makes us believe we have to play. If you don’t try the games, you will miss out on that small chance of winning. After all, if you don’t try, you can rule out hitting the jackpot entirely.

Taking a more pragmatic view, expert bettors generally rule out jackpots as the probability of winning is just too small. These bettors try to work on games that have more ebb and flow, instead of waiting to hit a big jackpot. Sure, it is tempting to try, and anticipating a win will pump up your dopamine levels. But if you want to set up a bankroll and find games where wins come more often and you have a better chance of finishing on a high, you would rule out jackpots. That goes for side bets too, such as Perfect Pairs in Blackjack, or betting on suits in Baccarat. Side bets come with the biggest house edge, which is why a lot of expert players avoid them.

Illusion of Control and Skill Based Conceit

The illusion of control is arguably the most dangerous gambler’s fallacy. It is the belief that if you train hard enough and have keen skills, you can beat the house. In theory, learning a masterful blackjack strategy, or applying a mathematically optimised poker system will reduce the house edge. But you are not guaranteed wins. However good you are at card counting or making snap decisions.

The “skill games” are based on chance, and you will need luck to draw the right cards or for the house to lose. Yet the gambler’s conceit here can blind your judgment. After all, you are applying a mathematically optimised strategy, and just need to build a little on your bankroll, and then can quit.

But luck will not always come your way. However refined your strategy is, you must always set a loss limit. If you hit the limit, be prepared to accept the losses and quit the game. Otherwise, through prolonged play, you will only get more tired, possibly to the point where your decision-making is compromised.

How to Prevent Gambler’s Conceit

It’s not as simple as curbing your expectations. The conceit rises from the hope that you will beat the house and win. Something that also amplifies the pleasure of gaming, the very reason why gambling is so fun. Our rewards system is flooded with dopamine in anticipation and wins reinforce those feelings. But you cannot get ahead of yourself.

Casino games must be treated as sources of entertainment. There is no way of knowing whether the money on your account will make more, or end up getting lost in countless rounds of slots or blackjack gameplay. If you win big, you can either leave the game or choose to keep playing. If you want to continue, only do so in the knowledge that you may not be able to restore your bankroll to that level. Sure, you may be able to double up on the win, but you can also end up back at square one.

Therefore, we always advise players to set loss and win limits. You can also integrate progressive betting strategies to help avoid the inevitable (going bust). Don’t exaggerate your limits, but choose conservative and realistically achievable targets. If you do get into a losing streak, it is best to quit while you still have money left in your account. That way, you save funds for the next gaming session, where you may find more success.