Lucky Streaks: The Psychology Behind Winning and Losing Patterns

A statistical anomaly, hot hands at a card game, or a debilitating string of losses, streaks are one of the most misunderstood phenomena in gambling. All gamblers have experienced streaks, to varying degrees, and they can play all kinds of tricks on our minds. Losing streaks can be unbearable and force gamblers into making reckless decisions or playing ultra aggressively. But that doesn’t mean winning streaks are much better.

Players buying into winning streaks can also fall victim to a number of traps, and what starts as a hot hand of luck can end in a fireball of losses and remorse. At its base, streaks are just the result of variance in results, and something that is perfectly explicable within the realms of chance and luck. But beyond the mathematical ideals and probability, it can invoke a wide range of feelings, a lot of which are counterintuitive and can be harmful.

Defining Streaks in Different Casino Games

A streak, by definition, is a run of a spell of consecutive results. It is an uninterrupted series of events, such as flipping a coin on heads 10 times in a row. Or, for an in-form NFL team to win 6 games in a row. So, technically, a winning streak is when you win multiple hands in a row, without any losses in between. And a losing streak is where you continuously lose without winning. Now in games such as roulette, blackjack, baccarat, or, sports betting, it is quite easy to define a streak. You either win or you lose, and if the same result occurs consecutively, you have your streak.

But then there are casino games such as slots or video poker. These have complex paytable structures, throwing in partial payouts and mega payouts, which can muddy up the definition. Put it this way, if you play a low volatility slot game and consistently make 0.5x payouts, technically, you are on a winning streak. But you aren’t making a profit.

Mathematical Principles of Streaks

Casino games are designed to run on chance, and even games such as blackjack or video poker, where your decisions can impact the result, still revolve around the draw of a card. Streaks are part of the random sequence of events, and can occur at any time during your gameplay. Just because the odds on a coin flip may be 50-50, doesn’t mean you can’t flip 10 heads in a row. The possibility of it happening before flipping are 1 in 1,024. But at the start of every flip, the odds on heads or tails are always 50%.

One of the biggest fallacies that plagues gamers is the notion that past results don’t affect future results. You may think that because the roulette ball landed on red 5 times in a row, it is due to land on black. After all, the results should be close to the mathematical probabilities. But this is just a case of variance playing tricks on us. In the long run, the results should, theoretically, balance out. But there are no guarantees, and the ball can continue falling on red, the chances are 18 in 37 every time the dealer releases the ball onto the spinning wheel.

Pattern Association in the Mind of a Gambler

Gamblers are risk takers, revel in the thrill of uncertainty, and, more often than not, love a good puzzle. Building bankrolls, assembling betting strategies and anticipating what will happen are all complex puzzles we can play around with. Gamblers also tend to look at historical results and try to form patterns or predict the future through statistical analysis. From insightful sports betting to masterful baccarat strategies and assessing various outcomes in roulette, the gambling world is full of intriguing stats.

Randomness, while easy to understand in theory, can play tricks on a gambler’s mind. They can calculate the odds and understand the risks, but when a streak of bad or great results comes about, it tends to distort our understanding. Our minds crave cause and effect, whether it is building momentum in slots or consecutive wins at Sic Bo.

How Our Senses and Psyche are Impacted

When the variance is low, and the results are closer to the actual probabilities, it is easier to stay in control of your emotions. You have anticipated this. The wins and losses more or less cancel each other out. And so your resulting dopamine and cortisol levels are also sustained. But when you start losing more often, and perhaps encounter a losing streak, your cortisol levels will steadily rise. As will your dopamine levels. Because dopamine is not just released when you win, but also between rounds, when you are anticipating what will happen next. Your dopamine levels may rise as you patiently wait for your fortunes to turn around.

If they don’t, you may be urged to play more aggressively to chase your losses. After all, the win feels long overdue and perhaps it is because something big is coming. You have pumped, let’s say, $100 into a slot machine. If you leave now, you have definitely lost that $100. But you may be a few spins away from the mega payout that will balance out the losses.

Losing streaks are dangerous, but winning streaks can be even more harmful.

Winning Streak Rollercoaster

There isn’t much that can beat the dopamine highs you will feel during a winning streak. Your cortisol levels will drop as your brain releases more dopamine. It can invoke overconfidence in a gambler, which can lead them to playing out the streak and into losses. At this point, the gambler may want to reclaim the peak of their bankroll, and if they start losing more heavily, they will chase their losses. This is the start of compulsive betting, and can lead gamblers to make irrational decisions and bet recklessly.

Another danger of winning streaks is that they alter your dopamine regulation. After continuously winning, the forthcoming wins will not have the same impact or winner’s rush that the initial wins brought. Overconfidence, and the gambler’s conceit will grow, but so does loss aversion. In that losses will feel more impactful than wins of equal measure. If the winning streak finishes, those dopamine levels will drop and every loss will feel more painful than the last. You will feel enhanced gambler’s remorse, which will also, in turn, make it more difficult to quit.

Preventing Gambling Urges and Reckless Play

Gambler’s fallacies and cognitive biases are not formed at the start of your gaming sessions. These fallacies tend to build up after playing for a long time, especially if you zone out during your gaming. The altering dopamine regulation and cortisol build up is physically exhausting, and this, in turn, can tire you out mentally too. Therefore, the best way to prevent falling into these psychological traps is by taking regular breaks. You can enforce this by setting reality checks, to stay aware of how long you have been playing. Or, by making timeouts that will cut you off from the gaming after you have played for a certain amount of time.

Creating a bankroll and a plan for your gaming is one of the best ways to maintain control over the counterintuitive instincts. Set aside an amount that you want to play with. And it should be an amount of money that you can afford to lose. As there are no guarantees that you won’t run into a losing streak. Then, choose games or bets that can accommodate your budget. Specifically, look for games with table limits that you are comfortable with. And pay attention to volatility and paytable structures. Generally, gamblers with lower bankrolls tend to play games with low volatility. That means, more frequent wins, but relatively smaller wins. The high volatility games, which have more seldom wins, but of larger amounts, require a bigger bankroll to sustain you through the losses before any wins can come.

Of course, volatility and potential payouts are all theoretical, and you can’t anticipate whether there will be any variance. So make sure your bankroll is tight and can sustain you for longer, so that you don’t go bust. And when you start to feel tired, take a break immediately.

Strategies That Revolve Around Streaks

While you can’t plan ahead for streaks, some betting strategies specifically relate to winning or losing streaks. For instance, the Martingale betting system is designed to capitalize on losing streaks by doubling your bet. The idea is that when the losing streak ends, you should make back all the money you lost during the streak. But the Martingale strategy is very risky. As the table limits and size of your bankroll may constrain you from chasing longer losing streaks.

The Fibonacci system is a more balanced betting system. It uses betting units, capitalising on winning streaks and mitigating losses during losing streaks. A progressive betting system, you continuously change your stake depending on the previous result. Then, there are betting systems such as Paroli, Reverse Martingale, D’Alembert, and various others. Each has its own methodology and tactics to either capitalise on streaks, or play more cautiously during streaks.

Ultimately, though, streaks are a part of the games. The most important thing to remember is to stay in control when you do encounter winning or losing streaks. And to recognise when to quit. Accepting your losses is one of the hardest skills you can learn. But it is arguably the most valuable skill in a gambler’s arsenal.