Fact or Fiction: Are Slot Machines Really ‘Due’ for a Win?

Arguably, the most attractive aspect of slots is the volatility and extensive paytable hierarchy. In blackjack or baccarat, when you stake a hand, you know exactly how much you stand to win. Or roulette players stake specific wagers, accepting the risks and they know the exact probability of their wagers winning. But slots don’t have the same payout constraints, and complex video slots can produce all sorts of results.

Your $1 spin may produce nothing, a partial payout, turn a small profit, or even unlock a bonus round, with multipliers, expanding symbols and tremendous prizes at the end. You just never know when the stars will align and you will be hit with a life changing jackpot. On the other end of the spectrum, the games can also be frustrating, seemingly unfair, and even even feel like bigger forces are working against you. The feeling that a win is due can lead to all kinds of fallacies, and bring out the worst in players.

Technology Behind Slot Machines

Landbased slot machines and their digital online slots counterparts all use random number generators to ensure the results are completely random. Licensed casinos (online and landbased), can only supply games that use fair RNGs. When a casino operator chooses a slot machine, they receive a blueprint of the game from the software provider. They can then tweak some of the mechanics and even the payout structure. This is why some slots may have slightly different max payouts at different casinos. Once the operator is happy with their product, they must get it tested by a third party auditor.

GLI, eCOGRA, iTech Labs, and BMM Testlabs are among the most widely used and well-known independent game testing labs. To assess the slot machines’ algorithms and payout schemes, they must simulate hundreds of thousands of outcomes on the game. If the slots meet the requirements, they are given the auditor’s seal of approval and an RTP rating. The Return to Player value is an assessment of the slot machine’s payout averages. And gives you an indication of how large the house edge is in the slot.

Thus, this ensures the games supplied at licensed operators use fair models that aren’t rigged against players. The casinos cannot change the RTP based on how much you stake, or lower your chances of winning if you are in the green.

Random Number Generators Theory

RNGs are quite controversial if you analyse them thoroughly. Because they make fully random results, yet we can get a theoretical RTP that gives us an idea of how much they can pay. It is a theoretical value, so you can’t use the RTP as a means to calculate your returns over an extended period. Anyways, if you did, it would point to your financial ruin, as RTP rates are never 100% or more – a house edge is needed to keep the casino in business. Random Number Generators do not create completely random results, in the true definition of the word. No, they use a deterministic sequence, making a sequence of numbers that appear to be random, but are based on a seed value.

Each RNG has its own special seed value, and mathematical algorithm to generate an endless sequence of pseudo random numbers from the seed. In theory, if you were to obtain the seed value and algorithm, you could crack the slot machine. But the outcomes are generated constantly, rolling through the numbers even during rounds or while the slot machine is not being played. So the theory would only work if you were to find the biggest jackpot in the sequence, pinpoint the exact moment in time when the sequence will pass it, and then hit Play at the precise millisecond.

So it is possible to beat the house, but you will need the seed value, a complicated mathematical sequence, and to pinpoint the exact moment in time when the mega payouts will unlock. In practice, this is impossible, and you wouldn’t be able to get your hands on the sequence or the seed.

Are You Really Due a Win in Slots?

Slot machines can be highly rewarding and frustrating in equal measure. You don’t question the mechanics or probabilities when you are in the green and the game is bringing you win after win. But during losing streaks, it can feel like the game is rigged against you, or the RTP is a lie.

It is not. It’s just that you are experiencing a streak of poor variance. This is quite difficult even for expert gamers to fully grasp, and at times it can feel like you really are due a win. During a losing streak, it is perfectly reasonable to believe that wins must be on the way. Because these are not rigged slots, and to balance out the previous losing results, there must be some wins.

If not to reach the 90-something percent RTP, then to get closer to it. Because your last spins have just brought you 10 or something percent. But that is not the case. The previous results have absolutely no bearing on what will happen next.

Volatility Working Against You

Slots are not due a win or a loss, in short. Feeling that the results should balance out to reflect the RTP is counterintuitive logic, as the results don’t follow any kind of pattern. Slots are much more volatile than any other casino game because of their complex mechanics. We can’t exactly pinpoint the odds of landing a partial payout, full payline, or the jackpot prize.

All we have to go on is the RTP and the payouts themselves. So if a 96% slot machine has a top payout of 5,000x, in theory, the chances of hitting that payout are around 0.019%.

Dangers of Believing Wins are Due

The volatility of slots can produce all kinds of illusions and fallacies in gamblers. Just for the fact that you could play 100 rounds and lose 90% of your bankroll, and then the 101st spin triggers a bonus round and puts you 1,000% in profit. Or, you trigger a bonus round early in your gaming session, and it pays out a total 300x. And then you keep playing and trigger another one. However, the second bonus round only produces a 10x win.

Believing a win is due can lead some players to make pretty costly mistakes. For example, you pump $100 into a slot machine, and decide to keep playing because you think the win is due. You may end up losing another $100 just waiting for the slot to pay out. But you feel compelled to keep going, because quitting after losing the initial $100 is to finally accept the loss. You may feel that the slot is just warming up, and that after overcoming the short term variance, the results should lean more in your favor.

Another dangerous fallacy is the gambler’s conceit. This is having too much confidence in your ability to quit while you are ahead. You may have it all planned out, and are looking to hit a specific winning milestone before quitting. But if you hit it too early, or end up never reaching it, it can compel you to keep playing.

What To Do When the Slot Isn’t Paying Out

Slot machines are never due wins, there is no way of knowing whether your next spin will hit the jackpot, or produce absolutely nothing. And the same goes for the next 100 spins after that.

If you are at a loose end and don’t know what to do, there are some alternatives that you could consider to avoid getting upset and chasing your losses.

The Best Strategy – Take a Break

Accepting your losses is the hardest part of gambling, but it is necessary. Not just to avoid gambling addiction or forming compulsive betting habits. It is a good practice and one that helps you recalibrate and figure out what to do next. You are not throwing away an overdue win. Instead, you are saving your remaining bankroll, for a future gaming session that will hopefully be more fruitful.

Try Other Casino Games

Another good strategy is to close the slot game, and instead of opening another, try a completely different casino game. Namely, ones where the odds and probabilities are more transparent.

Roulette odds are easy to understand, and you can choose how much risk you want in your bets. Going for 1:1 bets should win more often, but bring smaller payouts. But you can also dabble in 2:1, 5:1, all the way up to the straight bets at 35:1.

The only problem with roulette is that it may be a bit too controlled. Slots gamers enjoy the thrill of uncertainty in that they never know just how much they could win. If you want something more akin to slots, but in a more transparent and controlled structure, you could always try video poker.

Video poker has paytable hierarchies that resemble slots, and you get a similar kind of volatility. However, it is based on the draw of a card, so you can calculate the number of possible outcomes and what you need. Furthermore, video poker has an element of control, in that you choose the cards to hold or discard. You can learn video poker optimised strategies to enhance your chances of turning a profit, and reduce the house edge.

Practice Stake Sizing Strategies

Let’s say you want to stick to slots, and don’t want to quit just yet. Your best option in that case is to experiment with some staking strategies. Instead of betting the same stake again, you would be changing the stake depending on whether you win or lose.

The Martingale betting strategy is not recommended for slots, it is far too aggressive and difficult to manage. Instead, you can use betting systems such as Fibonacci, D’Alembert, or Paroli. These progressive betting systems involve you increasing and decreasing the stake, depending on the results.

In doing so, the systems are more balanced. You can mitigate losses during a losing streak, or capitalise on winning streaks. Or, play more cautiously when winning to avoid overspending, and increase your stake during losses in the hope that you will catch a lucky break. The different betting systems all have their own purposes, and you can set the units or increments with which you will increase or decrease your stake.