Roulette Myths Exposed: Can You Really Predict the Wheel?

The roulette wheel has baffled the minds of countless players, and extraordinary sums of money have been won and lost in this exhilarating casino game. From its introduction into Europe in the late 18th century, roulette had all the makings of a hot casino game. The goal, to predict where the ball will land in the next round. And there are numerous ways to play, risking as much or as little as you like, and combining wagers to add further complexity.

At its base, this is a game of pure chance, where your guess is as good as the next person’s. Of course, we can also throw in numerous betting strategies to mitigate (or take advantage of) volatility and variance. Though besides setting a stake, and making strategies around that, there is not much else to do but make your predictions. But what if there was a way you could predict where the ball will fall? There have been instances in the past where people have, and quite accurately, pinpointed where the ball will land next. Here, we will look at how it has been done before, and see if its possible to pull off nowadays.

Short Introduction and History of Roulette

Roulette was one of the chief games of the French palatial courts at the end of the 18th century. The game spread across Europe in the 19th century, and venues such as the Monte Carlo Casino popularised roulette for the masses. A quick distinction must be made already with roulette, because by the 19th century, there were two formats of this game. The original featured a two-digit zero, making 38 segments on the wheel (00, 0, 1-36).

The game was adapted to have just the single-digit zero (37 segment wheel). Though a third variant popped up, French Roulette, which had the single digit zero wheel and some of the original rules of the game. These included the French announced bets, and variants of old rules relating to what would happen if the ball fell on a zero.

The oldest version of roulette, with 38 segments, fell out of favor in Europe. However, it was exported to the US, where the American Roulette continues to use the same wheel. European roulette is perhaps the most popular outside of the US, with French roulette coming in a close second. Outside the zero rules, extra segment, and the French announced bets, the three versions of roulette are practically the same. They all feature a collection of bets that you can make, and you have to predict where the ball will land.

You can predict the exact number it will land on (straight up bet), all the way to predicting high/low, odds/even, or red/black. There are a myriad of roulette bets in between those, and you aren’t restricted to placing just 1 bet per round.

Methods to Predict Where the Ball Will Land

The house edge in roulette is quite low, more so at European or original French roulette than the American double digit zero wheel. Yet some gamblers have taken matters into their own hands and used expert methods to determine where the ball will land. Now don’t think of this as an exact science, because it is not. Even the most advanced roulette prediction tactics won’t always give you the exact winning number.

But they can narrow down the options, which is a crucial part of beating the house. If the strategy can filter the options to the quadrant (approx 9 numbers), it can still be highly profitable. You would place 9 straight up bets, at say $10 each, and when one hits, it would bring back $360. Minus the 8 other stakes ($80), and the strategy can make $240 from a $10 bet. Now if that was reduced even more, the ROI would grow substantially.

From Charles Wells, the man who broke the bank of Monte Carlo in 1891, to the modern roulette teams who use computers and lasers to beat the wheel, here are the main methods you could use to beat the house.

#1. Timing the Spin and the Destination

This theory of spin prediction is a relatively new one, and not something you could accurately do without computers or precision instruments. The idea is to time the spins, and also clock the exact segment the ball is released onto the spinning wheel.

To further complicate things, you should also time the decaying orbit. This is the decreasing momentum of the ball as it spins around the wheel, and key to calculating its final trajectory. To do all this, you would need to record a few spins first, with a stopwatch. And make notes of where the ball is released onto the wheel, and the segment it is at after making 1 full spin (or 1 and 2 full spins for a more accurate measurement). With an average time, starting point, and 1 (or 2) additional points, you’ve got the speed, relative decay, and use the past results to calculate where the ball will spin.

You will also need to place your bets very quickly. Just after the dealer releases the ball, you have precious seconds to make your roulette bets. It only works after they have released the ball, so don’t leave it too long. And when you have got the relative position, place your bets and let the physics do the work.

#2. Looking for Biased Wheels

A more simple method is looking for wheels with biases. It won’t happen at the biggest casinos on the Vegas Strip, but if you are betting at an older or smaller casino, you may get lucky. Hot hands or lucky numbers don’t exist in the ideal world. But some casinos may use old tables that have not been renovated for years, and therein, you may find discrepancies. Old wheels may not have the same smooth surface, or the frets between segments may be worn down. The result – a table where some numbers may appear more often than others. The grooves may be a little deeper, or the wear can favour certain segments over others.

This method has worked in the past, but nowadays it is hard to find a casino that uses faulty equipment. Plus, you can’t really see it without using magnifying lenses and getting close up to the wheel. So you are essentially hoping that any seemingly biased variance is actually wheel bias. Unless you are planning to go back to the casino for the next few days and find out, you can’t really know in the space of one gaming session. It may just be a case of high variance, and not a biased wheel that actually has “lucky numbers”.

#3. Dealer Collusion

This is perhaps the most sinister of the methods, but in theory it could work. Dealer collusion is when you make an agreement with the dealer, who can then try to “aim” for specific quadrants or sections. Dealers are taught to conduct roulette as it if were second nature. They spin the wheel and throw the ball possibly thousands of times in a day. So their throws and spins are pretty uniform. But in theory, a dealer could experiment a few times to roughly gauge where the ball will land with a certain spin speed and ball trajectory.

Now a colluding player wouldn’t necessarily need to place their bets on the same area of the wheel every single time. No, they would cover a different quarter each time. And the dealer would act accordingly, trying to hit that region. Of course, dealers are monitored by cameras and the pit boss. But if the colluding duo also makes a few deliberate losses, they could avoid detection.

Theory Behind Predicting the Wheel

We didn’t mention it, but you could probably guess by now. These methods are anything but legal. Especially colluding with a dealer, as this would see both you and the dealer receiving hefty punishment. Albert Einstein had another way to win at roulette. The legendary physicist claimed you could only win by stealing the chips when the dealer wasn’t looking.

The truth is, that roulette was designed to be fault proof for all kinds of prediction tactics. Especially nowadays, when the wheels are made to precision, and the gameplay is monitored by the Eye in the Sky. Casinos have strict rules regarding how you can play these games. Stopwatches and lasers (to pinpoint regions on the wheel) are strictly forbidden. As are algorithmic software or AI powered predictive tools to provide gamers with insights.

RNG Games vs Live Roulette Tables

All the wheel prediction methods only work at live tables. RNG powered roulette, while hugely popular, has no wheel biases or other mechanics that can help players. The results are fully randomised and therefore impossible to predict.

In that way, you could say they are fairer than their live table counterparts. But that doesn’t mean RNG games don’t have variance or volatility. No, you could run into a streak of 10 blacks, and still the results are completely random. So don’t fall under any gambling fallacies or conclusions that can impair your decision making.

Rounding It Up – Can You Predict the Wheel?

Yes, we wouldn’t say it is impossible to predict the wheel, especially with such refined tools and a keen eye. But the methods to beat the house are not legal, and will ultimately get you expelled from the casino. And possibly worse.

In 2004 there was a gang that used lasers and predictive software to beat the casino at the Ritz, in London. The group made over a million pounds with the scheme, but were detained by Scotland Yard. After nine months on bail, they were released and allowed to keep their winnings. The team found loopholes in the rules and conditions that didn’t specifically criminalise the techniques they used.

Nowadays, the security at casinos is much more sophisticated, and operators are savvy to all the kinds of new tech and machine learning software that players could use to potentially beat the house. As such, it is practically impossible to find a loophole or exploit a bylaw to use tech to beat the house. Colluding with dealers could see you lose your money, and the casino may even press charges. You can’t find biased wheels anymore, nor can you beat RNG powered software. And Einstein’s method wouldn’t work for obvious reasons.

So there are no real ways to beat the house at roulette. Like all the other players at the table, you can instead focus on strategy and bet sizing. And remember to always play safely and stick with your roulette bankroll to never overspend.