Kalshi Perps Hit $1 Billion: Is the Prediction Market Giant Moving Beyond Sports?

Kalshi, one of the two prediction market powerhouses in the US betting scene, has taken a bold new step by launching “perps”. This new product, perpetual futures or perpetual swaps, are related purely to financial markets and stocks, making predictions about whether the prices will go up or down, with leverage like 5x to up the ante. Why is this important for sports betting? Precisely because of the current legal climate surrounding Kalshi, and Polymarket for that matter, and that these new financial products are CFTC approved.

It signals a slight change in direction for prediction markets, venturing into cryptocurrency price speculation, and especially for Kalshi. For this prediction market is widely known for its sports-oriented markets. In fact, sports-related contracts take the majority of the market volume on Kalshi, but that may change pretty soon with the introduction of the new perps. Already in the first week since the launch, Kalshi perps have crossed $1 billion in trading volume, giving those sports related markets some serious competition.

What are Kalshi Perps

Kalshi Perps was launched on May 29, and within the first week the platform generated over $1 billion in volume. This is a staggering reception for Kalshi’s perps, and one that really highlights the demand for such financial products. On this trajectory, the perps may well match or even eclipse the sports-related markets on the platform. Also, it marks an interesting question for Kalshi’s future. If the legal landscape around sports-related contracts becomes too heated – could Kalshi explore this financial-driven market as an alternative?

Perps are really nothing new, but the difference between Kalshi’s perps and similar swaps on the market is that these are officially approved by the CFTC. Kalshi perps are regulated and therefore will draw mainstream interest from the US betting public. The interest is definitely there, as Kalshi recorded over $1 billion in Perps market volume in its first week alone. These have a lot of promise, but they are a big side step from sports contracts. Perpetual wagers, with no fixed settlement dates, are finance and stock-related and these products can utilize leverage. They pose a very new type of bet for Americans. One that has nothing to do with sports, but everything to do with predicting fluctuations in crypto prices.

What are Perps

While Kalshi’s perps were just launched at the end of May and have already drawn massive attention from customers, they are not a new product invented by Kalshi. Not by any means. Perps outdate crypto itself, the concept was first introduced by economist and future Nobel Prize winner Robert Shiller back in 1992. Basically, these are perpetual futures markets, or markets that can keep going forever – or at least the customer runs out of capital.

The idea behind perps is that you hedge bets against prices or variables that continuously change, with no settlement date. Your capital will fluctuate in proportion to your bet and the leverage you use, and this can continue forever or until your position is liquidated. Nowadays, it is most associated with cryptocurrencies. The basic principle, using crypto as an example, is you open a position and stake your capital. You can short the currency (bet on the crypto to go down), or long it (bet on it to go up).

Leverage and Potential Gains/Losses

Then comes the leverage. This is a multiplier that enhances your potential gains or losses on the perp. Customers can either pick from selected leverage positions or pick their own, depending on the platform. When they stake their capital, their effective position is:

Capital [$] x Leverage [%] = Effective Position

When you bet on a variable (most commonly the price of a cryptocurrency), you can either take a long or a short position. Long positions are betting on the price to go up, while shorts are on the price to go down.

The capital continuously fluctuates in value in proportion to the cryptocurrency drop/rise percentage, and the leverage.

Interest in Perpetual Futures

There are no scenarios in which perps can be used for sports betting, or casino gaming in that matter, they are purely financial products. Which is exactly why it is so important that Kalshi has released this function now.

For perps swaps are popular on crypto and derivatives exchanges, but they were operating on the outskirts of federal law. But no more, since Since CFTC approved perpetual futures contracts in the US, and issued on order allowing Kalshi to trade Bitcoin perps, this has completely changed the game for prediction markets.

Perps in Kalshi Legality Debate

Because perps have no relation to sports whatsoever. 2025 was really the first year of the prediction market boom, where many new markets entered the US and they became heavily associated with sports betting. It kicked off with yet another record shattering Super Bowl for prediction markets, and then during the year, Kalshi launched its parlay-style contracts, and more markets jumped on the sports contract bandwagon.

By the end of the year, sportsbooks like Fanatics, FanDuel and DraftKings had either launched their own prediction markets or were in the process of making their own.

From a legal scope, however, they have become highly contentious. Regulated at a federal level, they are technically allowed to operate in every single state. In states that have not legalized sports betting, the argument against prediction markets is that these are unlawful sports betting products.

States that do have legal sports betting argue that prediction markets should be regulated or overseen at the state level. As things stand, they don’t have to comply with state gambling laws or pay gambling taxes to state authorities.

Actions Taken Against Prediction Markets

There have been lawsuits against Kalshi and other prediction markets that have dragged on for months, mostly pitting the state authorities against the operators, or the federal government’s authority on prediction markets. In March, Minnesota became the first state to sign a law explicitly banning prediction markets, which was immediately hit with legal action from the federal authorities. Later in the month, Illinois – a state that has long taken a stance against the legality of prediction markets – signed a law to extend its controversial per-bet tax to prediction markets. The Illinois legislation, which could be interpreted as some kind of recognition of these markets, determined that they should pay the per-wager tax that sportsbooks have, but there is a possibility that the sportsbook per-bet tax will be repealed this year.

The US is not alone in the plight against prediction markets. They were recently banned in Brazil, and blocked in Spain, joining the likes of Indonesia, India, Argentina, Portugal and Hungary – countries that have banned cryptocurrencies so far in 2026. On the other side, some jurisdictions have shown an interest in regulating prediction markets, with the UK and Gibraltar recognizing these as betting intermediaries. Gibraltar also licensed the first prediction market in Europe, and Malta has also expressed interest in regulating prediction markets.

The big problem seems to be the sports markets, which are seen as some kind of alternative form of betting. In the US, it crosses the line between federally-regulated financial derivatives and state-regulated sports betting (or state-regulated bans on sports betting).

Could Perps Take Over Prediction Markets

It is definitely just speculative at this stage, but the sheer volume of money pumping into Kalshi’s new Perps feature is quite simply staggering. It is a step into the financial product side of prediction markets, and one that more platforms may explore in the coming weeks and months. Simply because if these lawsuits and cases go against prediction markets, they may be forced to limit or withdraw their sports markets.

Kalshi’s sports volume accounts for around 70% of total revenue, fluctuating between 50% and 90% across sports seasons and election cycles. If not for their new Perps feature, which has hit the ground running in the US. It may just be hype for now, or the excitement of having a regulated crypto perpetual futures option. However, if the interest lasts, this very well could be a strong new vertical for Kalshi to lean into if sports markets are eventually restricted, taxed, or constrained by the legal battles.