Spain Blocks Prediction Markets 2 Weeks Ahead of World Cup

This summer promises to bring the heat to prediction market operators. In the US, the legal status of these is being determined in the courts, and the outcome could entirely reshape how these platforms operate. In Europe, the laws on prediction markets are pretty fragmented. Few jurisdictions recognize prediction markets, most countries either keep a blind eye or ban them completely. Spain has now become one of the latter, blocking access to Polymarket and Kalshi as the state examines how these platforms work.

While Spain is not a major market for these players, it comes at a time that will definitely hurt Kalshi and Polymarket. For we are entering into FIFA World Cup fever. The World Cup, alongside events like the Super Bowl, March Madness, or even during political election campaigns are always a prime betting time for these markets. The FIFA World Cup, which only comes around every 4 years, is most likely going to start and finish by the time the block on Kalshi and Polymarket in Spain expires.

The hope now is that this doesn’t spread, as major prediction market operators prep for one of the most lucrative sporting events in the world.

Spain Blocks Kalshi and Polymarket

Spain is quickly becoming one of the most tightly regulated iGaming markets in Europe, regulating online casinos and sportsbooks with laws that protect player interests. This development, where Spain has banned Kalshi and Polymarket, represents a battle that is spreading across the whole world right now. Spain, alongside France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Hungary, and Germany in blocking users from accessing these prediction markets. It is not just happening in Europe either, as Brazil recently banned Kalshi and 25+ other prediction market operators, and in the US these markets are amidst a regulatory tussle between the Federal Government and state authorities.

On the 26th of May, Kalshi and Polymarket were blocked in Spain with the regulatory authority, DGOJ, citing that they are operating without a gambling license. An investigation is now currently in the works to analyze whether these platforms are eligible to pursue specific administrative licenses, and therefore operate legally in Spain. Or, whether it is not in the interests of the authority to regulate these platforms. Either way, Kalshi and Poylmarket will remain blocked from Spanish servers until a decision is reached.

Spanish Safer Gambling Reforms

Gambling laws are being reformed everywhere, from the Italian licensing reforms to the continuous UK player safety protocols. This is dangerous territory to tread, as reforms that are too intrusive or diminish the quality of the regulated products risks losing players to the black market. As was made publicly evident in the Netherlands, were an official report stated that the black market had actually overtaken the regulated market in revenue. But the Spanish market is going from strength to strength.

Last year, they made stricter advertising laws, restrictions on sports gambling sponsorships, and made more automated responsible gambling systems. The authority even made it mandatory for gambling operators to display anti-gambling disclaimer banners on online casinos and sportsbooks. They also introduced limits on VIP programs, curbed limit hopping between regulated casinos, and targeted media gambling ads on social media.

None have been so intrusive as to stop the Spanish iGaming revenue from growing, making Spain a rare precedent of where tightening gambling laws have actually been introduced without alienating the general public.

Other EU Countries Blocking Prediction Markets

Spain’s blocking of Polymarket and Kalshi is a temporary action until the regulator decides what to do about prediction markets. The DGOJ stated it will start a procedure, expected to last between 3 and 4 months, until a final resolution is reached. Which would put a rough deadline anywhere from August til September. It also stated that the DGOJ, in line with other EU jurisdictions, reminds the public that these markets are considered sports betting.

The difference though, is that the DGOJ is running an investigation to determine what to do next. In countries like Belgium, the Netherlands, France, Portugal and Hungary, prediction markets are either blocked or banned, as they are not recognized at all by the regulators. In Italy, Germany and Poland, the law is more ambiguous, and while there are warnings against these platforms, their legal status is not fully defined.

EU Interest in Prediction Markets

It is difficult to gauge where prediction markets will be in the next 5 years, but some countries are making provisions for these platforms. The UK, for example, defines prediction markets as betting intermediaries. This falls into the same category as betting exchanges, with peer to peer betting. This year, Malta has expressed an interest in regulating prediction markets, exploring how the licensing would work and what kinds of security and safety protocols they can introduce for the platforms.

Gibraltar-Licensed PredictStreet Official Sponsor

But Gibraltar has beaten Malta to the punch, and using the same format as the UK, it officially licensed the first prediction market in Europe in April. ADI PredictStreet, run by an Abu Dhabi based firm, went live on April 9th, and a little later it formally became the official prediction market for the FIFA World Cup.

The Gibraltar license does not automatically give ADI PredictStreet access to the EU, but this license is recognized in various Canadian provinces, Ireland, historically the UK, Latin American markets and certain lightly regulated or unregulated markets. ADI PredictStreet intends to cater to soccer fans across the world, using its partnership with FIFA and Gibraltar license to give any would-be customers the assurances that the platform is legit. And it arrived well in time for fans to explore the markets for the World Cup.

How the World Cup Could Change Markets Forever

Just this year we have seen record breaking sports betting handles for the Super Bowl, and a little later for the 2026 March Madness tournament. The prediction market frenzy across these two events was also enormous, with estimates suggesting Kalshi and Polymarket had a market volume of around $1.63 billion from the Super Bowl, up from last year’s $500 – $900 million range. The March Madness betting handle, which is a better comparison for the upcoming World Cup as this is also a month-long tournament, racked up a mighty $24.47 billion in prediction market volume. But the betting for NFL Super Bowls and NCAAB March Madness is virtually limited to the US. The FIFA World Cup promises to be a different beast entirely.

For this event only comes around once every four years, unlike the yearly March Madness, and it features teams from all over the world. That is, soccer betting activity from virtually all countries. This can generate some massive liquidity for the markets, and at the time of writing, there are already many World Cup markets up online on both platforms. Right now, at the end of May (~2 weeks before the World Cup begins), the Men’s World Cup Winner market – essentially a futures bet on the World Cup Winner – at Kalshi has over $48 million in trading volume. By contrast, the equivalent market on Polymarket has over $1.25 billion and counting.

World Cup soccer betting is difficult to calculate, but we do know the figures are astronomical. Estimates put the handles for the 2014 Brazil World Cup at anywhere from $90B to $120B. In 2018, when it was held in Russia, the estimates were around $160B.

And for the 2022 Qatar World Cup it exceeded the 2018 World Cup by far, with estimates ranging from $180B up to $300B+. This will be the first World Cup to be held in this new prediction market era of sports betting, and with an official sponsor already lined up, it seems the soccer authorities are already on board to accommodate this controversial betting niche (if it can still be called that).

Depending on how bettors react to this World Cup, and how prediction markets try to win over traditional bettors to their alternative, peer market products, this could be a massive milestone in the history of both World Cup betting and prediction markets globally.