IG Group Plans UK Prediction Markets Launch With Gambling Licence Bid

IG Group Holdings plc will launch financial prediction markets for UK professional clients in the fourth quarter of 2026, the trading group said on October 22, 2026, in a Capital Markets Event statement that also disclosed a UK gambling licence application and plans to broaden its markets into politics, entertainment and sports in early 2027.

The group hosted the event for investors and analysts at UBS, 5 Broadgate, London, from 14:00 UK time. The statement set out the priorities arising from the strategic review IG announced on March 19, 2026, alongside maintained medium-term guidance and an updated capital allocation framework, with product and divisional commentary on third-quarter trading.

Prediction Markets and the Licence Application

IG said its unified proposition, which brings trading, investing and crypto together on a single platform, is now live in the UK and will be rolled out across IG Consumer. Financial prediction markets will launch in the fourth quarter of 2026 for UK professional clients, and IG Consumer expects to broaden its markets to include politics, entertainment and sports in early 2027.

The Gambling Commission’s public register entry shows a pending application under the name IG View Limited, with a head office at 88 Wood Street, London. The entry covers a remote “General Betting Standard – Real Event” licence and is marked “Application or variation in progress,” with the status shown as pending. The register notes that a remote licence is required for any gambling provided to players online or by other remote means.

Companies House records show IG View Limited was incorporated on July 17, 2026, with a registered office at 88 Wood Street, London. The company’s significant-control filing names Market Data Limited as its person with significant control, holding 75% or more of shares and voting rights, notified on July 17, 2026. Market Data Limited’s own filing names Ig Group Limited as its significant controller, again with 75% or more of shares and voting rights. Each controlling entity lists a correspondence address at Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London.

Strategic Review and the Underdog Deal

Among the outcomes of the strategic review, the proposed redomicile of the group to Jersey is expected to become effective in late 2026 or early 2027, subject to court approval and other conditions. IG has refreshed its organisational model around three divisions: IG Consumer, IG Securities and tastytrade.

The proposed acquisition of Underdog, a US fantasy sports and prediction markets operator, is on track to complete in late 2026 or early 2027, the group said. IG announced on July 30, 2026, that it had agreed to acquire Underdog (Underdog Sports Holdings, Inc.), which it described as a leading US daily fantasy sports and prediction markets operator, for total consideration of up to approximately $1.3 billion.

Chief executive Breon Corcoran said: “Trading, investing and entertainment are converging, and IG is well placed to capitalise on the opportunity. Today we will set out how we will deliver our next phase of growth – broadening and enriching our propositions, investing in our brands and increasing efficiency.”

IG said the UK has grown active customers and net revenue around twice as fast as the rest of IG Consumer over the past 21 months, and that IG Consumer chief executive Michael Healy is rolling that strategy out across the division’s other markets. Multi-product customers generate around three times the average revenue per user of single-product customers, the group said, with marketing paybacks under six months and customer value over the first 36 months around four times acquisition cost.

Maintained Guidance and Third-Quarter Trading

IG held its 2026 guidance unchanged from the trading update it issued on October 2, 2026: total revenue growth in a mid-single-digit per cent range year-on-year, and a group EBITDA margin in the low-40s per cent range, excluding approximately £30 million of non-recurring redomicile and restructuring costs as well as expenses related to the Underdog acquisition, which are contingent on closing.

The group also maintained medium-term guidance excluding Underdog, targeting organic total revenue growth of 10% or more on a compound annual basis from a 2025 base of approximately £1.1 billion and a group EBITDA margin in the mid-40s per cent range. IG said the medium-term guidance reflects its expectations for performance over time rather than for any specific year. Under the refined capital allocation framework, the group committed to an investment grade credit rating and a progressive ordinary dividend per share, with share buybacks expected to resume in 2027 subject to share price performance and other demands on capital.

For the third quarter, the group reported total revenue of £240.5 million, down 14% year-on-year, within which net trading revenue of £212.3 million declined 15% year-on-year. Organic first trades increased 28% year-on-year, and organic active customers rose 17% year-on-year. Total assets under administration across the group’s platforms reached a new high of £22.4 billion at the end of September, against £21.5 billion at June 30, 2026.