WagerWise Gets Approval for Gibraltar Prediction Market License

Gibraltar has approved in principle a second prediction market operator, giving WagerWise the green light to obtain a betting intermediary license for its latest project. At the KPMG Gibraltar Gaming eSummit, diversification was one of the key topics for Minister Nigel Feetham, especially in light of the UK tax hikes on iGaming and remote sports betting – both of which have severely impacted Gibraltar’s UK-facing gambling industry.

It is also sends a message to the rest of Europe, as Gibraltar looks set to license its second (and Europe’s second) prediction market operator. While the UK market does recognize prediction markets, as betting intermediaries, in many other major EU markets, these products are either strictly limited or brand domains are blocked entirely. Gibraltar, a gaming jurisdiction that has recently reformed its iGaming laws, is looking to cement its position as one of the early EU pioneers in prediction markets, but it raises many questions.

WagerWise Gets Approval for Gibraltar License

With the preliminary licence approvals, WagerWise is en route to securing a Gibraltar betting intermediary B2C licence, and become a licensed prediction market. The news arrives 2 months after the Gibraltar gaming authorities licensed PredictStreet ADI, the first officially licensed prediction market in Europe. This is quite an interesting move for many reasons. WagerWise is pretty much a US-facing, Australian company that specializes in alternative betting products. The Gibraltar licence would not give them the rights to launch in the US – only CFTC approved companies (which obtain DCM licenses) can operate in the US.

Since Brexit, and ever tightening iGaming reforms across Europe, Gibraltar does not automatically unlock every EU jurisdiction. However, it would give WagerWise the possibility of a UK launch, and open the doors to other international markets where local laws recognise offshore iGaming licenses such as those in Gibraltar.

Prediction markets are virtually untouched territory outside the US, they are either banned, restricted or ignored in other countries, but this expansion by Gibraltar may just be the turning of the tide for operators.

Who Are WagerWise

An Aussie company, with an HQ in Los Angeles and US-facing products, WagerWise is not your average bookie. In fact, it is not a bookie at all. This is a different type of service entirely – one where punters can list their ongoing bets and sell them to the highest bidder. It is not a betting exchange – that requires peer to peer bet trading – but it is not a prediction market either. Their line of business is the following:

• Users can list their existing bets (at DraftKings, FanDuel, etc – US bookmakers)
• Other users can browse these and make bids to buy them off the seller
• After the parties confirm a sale – WagerWise handles the payout(s)

The company’s ambitions to move into prediction markets is an intriguing expansion, and picking Gibraltar makes sense as it is an attractive launchpad for the rest of Europe. It may not give automatic access to EU markets, but it is a step in the right direction, and WagerWise could make a relatively swift crack at the UK too.

How ADI PredictStreet is Faring

ADI PredictStreet, the first prediction market that Gibraltar licensed, is up and live, but it has not taken the betting world by storm. The company brands itself as the official prediction market sponsor of the FIFA World Cup. If you watched any of the games yet, you may have spotted PredictStreet displayed on the advertising boards around the field. Yet a quick look at the markets (at the time of writing), and the highest volume market is just over $200,000. For comparison, at US-facing Kalshi and Polymarket, the biggest World Cup markets have exceeded $180 million and $2 billion, respectively.

Sure, the World Cup has only just started, and there is plenty of time for PredictStreet to establish itself as a major player in the prediction market scene outside the US. WagerWise, which could launch in the next few weeks or potentially months, is expected to arrive before the NFL season begins. It is a good advert for Gibraltar if they can get operations up and running, attracting larger market volumes and pushing Gibraltar forward as the main prediction market regulator outside the US.

Gibraltar’s iGaming Reforms

This is no doubt the plan, and with months of careful planning and calculating. Gibraltar was one of the jurisdictions outside the UK that was hit hard by the UK iGaming tax hikes and imminent remote betting duty increases. These iGaming taxes do not only impact UK businesses and UKGC licensed operators. The laws follow a point-of-consumption framework, meaning UK-facing operators must chip in regardless of whether they are based in the UK.

A lot of the bigger brands in the UK have established themselves and obtained licenses in Gibraltar, such as Ladbrokes, Betfred, 888 and bet365. It is not cheaper from an iGaming/remote betting tax perspective, but if you consider corporate tax and overheads, Gibraltar is far more affordable than setting up shop in the UK.

A 6-month transitional period was started, which ended in April, to give operators time to adjust to Gibraltar’s new Gambling Act 2025. The main Gibraltar iGaming reforms widened the scope of regulated activities in Gibraltar, introduced laws for operators to build more local infrastructure and tightened market oversight. As a result, Gibraltar now has separate licenses for B2C, B2B, and Gaming Operator Support Services (GOSS), and it also helped boost local technical infrastructure and employment.

Key Notes of KPMG eSummit

The reforms sought to establish Gibraltar as a Tier 1 territory, a reputation which was boosted when Gibraltar was taken off Europe’s high-risk third countries list. It also opens up the possibility of more diversity in the market, which is something that is becoming more important in UK-facing markets. As the UK operators have all been forced to rethink strategies and work around the iGaming tax hikes, some like Sky Bet have relocated to cut costs, and others have explored new verticals, such as Flutter doubling down on the Tombola Arcade gaming vertical.

At the KPMG Gibraltar Gaming eSummit, diversity was a focal point. Minister Feethem highlighted the importance of prediction markets in that regard:

“Those engagements have generated genuine interest in Gibraltar, including from operators in emerging sectors such as prediction markets. They have also provided an opportunity to reinforce a simple message: Gibraltar remains a world-class jurisdiction and very much open for business… We continue to see businesses relocating functions to Gibraltar. Interest from emerging sectors, including prediction markets and digital asset-related businesses, is growing.”

He also told of the interest in the growing role of stablecoins and digital payments infrastructure, something that Tim Miller of the UKGC hinted at earlier this year, after HM Treasury made a statutory regulatory proposal to integrate crypto assets into the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000.

The UKGC has not yet progressed forward with these notions. But from what we have seen from Gibraltar, serving as an example of one of the fastest moving iGaming jurisdictions in Europe, this could be a good opening for the UK Overseas Territory.

Divisive EU Laws on Prediction Markets

After all, they did beat major competitor Malta to the punch. While Malta expressed an interest in regulating prediction markets, Gibraltar powered on ahead and licensed the first European prediction market operator. The Malta Gaming Authority is definitely the bigger market here, as it currently has over 300 operators and providers in its licensee register. Gibraltar, on the other hand, has just 56 (WagerWise not included yet).

Gibraltar is definitely a fast mover in the iGaming sector, and Feetham stated that one of their main objective is to ensure smoother movement across EU borders, with 2/3rds of the employees being cross-border workers. Access to Spain is critical, but what makes it quite controversial is that Spain recently blocked Kalshi and Polymarket, stating it would investigate the legality of prediction markets. This process is expected to take a few months, but if they rule against these sites, it could hamper Gibraltar’s hopes of pushing their new licensed prediction markets into mainland Europe.

The UK is the clearest near-term opportunity for Gibraltar licensed prediction markets, and Gibraltar is looking to make itself one of the main regulatory hubs for these operators outside America. But as for breaking into Europe, this is really beyond Gibraltar’s scope. If Malta, a more influential jurisdiction, were to license prediction markets it could trigger more interest. But for the time being, these operators sit on the periphery of the gaming regulations. And will continue to do so until major markets like Spain, Germany, Italy, and France take a stance on their legality.