WealthSimple to Launch Prediction Market Collab with Kalshi in Canada

On June 18th, the Canadian fintech company WealthSimple announced a new app for prediction trading through a partnership with the popular US prediction market, Kalshi. This prediction market extension will be called WealthSimple Predict, and it is expected to launch later in the summer, offering over 4,000 event contracts by Kalshi. This is not the first Canadian prediction market platform, that distinction goes to Interactive Brokers, which launched prediction markets in Canada back in 2025.

WealthSimple promises to bring something a little newer, and possibly louder, through its collaboration with Kalshi. The page for this new platform hints at trading on the housing market, weather, Bank of Canada interest rates, the price of oil, and various other real-world events. With one very important omission: sports contracts.

WealthSimple’s Collaboration with Kalshi

The WealthSimple Predict app is coming soon, and while there is no preregistration offered for Canadian customers, you can sign up to receive notifications about the developments as they happen. WealthSimple is a fintech app, offering crypto trading, stock options, ETFs, everyday digital banking, and even tax filing for Canadians. Prediction markets will add another dimension to the financial products at WealthSimple, but they won’t be worlds apart from what the platform already does.

For the newly announced WealthSimple Predict site has already made some important distinctions between prediction markets and its already offered products, options and futures.

Predictions vs Options

Both prediction markets and options have expiry dates, risks, and allow you to speculate on outcomes. However, options allow you to speculate on ETFs, indices, commodities and stocks, and the payout is variable depending on how far the asset moves in price. Instead of using a yes/no structure like prediction markets, the margins and spreads can impact wins or losses. While these can impact prediction market prices – as these are set by the market demand – and you can cash out ongoing contracts at those prices, the potential returns or losses do not scale for prediction markets as they do with options.

Predictions vs Futures

Futures also deal in assets, such as commodities, currencies and indices, but they use leverage to define positions and speculate on price variables. You can earn large returns if an asset goes up or down (depending on your position), and your original deposit is enhanced by leverage. But if the market goes against you, your position can be liquidated and you can lose your capital. Prediction markets deal with binary outcomes, without leverage, positions or liquidation, which distinguishes them from futures.

WealthSimple Predict

Prediction markets speculate on real world events, which is key to their mainstream appeal. Instead of captivating investors and people who follow stocks, indices or currencies, these give markets on events that have direct outcomes. There are definitely overlaps, such as speculating on currencies or stocks, but in prediction markets you won’t lose or win more if a specific spread/margin is reached. You are buying a Yes or No position on whether that stock will rise or drop to a fixed level.

In the US, prediction market volume seeps heavily into political and sports betting-style contracts. The two heavyweights, Polymarket and Kalshi, built their reputation around these types of contracts, with Polymarket arguably slightly more inclined towards political events, and Kalshi heavily prioritizing sports contracts. But WealthSimple Predict won’t offer either.

Event Contract Laws in Canada

The Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization regulates investment dealers and mutual fund dealers. In March, they laid out the Administrative Bulletin 26-0076 that formally authorized dealer members to provide event contract trading. The activities and contract types are heavily limited, and some events are completely off limits.

Prohibited events:

• Election outcomes
• Political related events
• Referendum results
• Political party leadership contracts
• Entertainment awards
• Reality television results
• Other entertainment contracts
• Sports outcomes

Sports betting trades are not allowed as per the current Canadian laws on prediction markets. The laws stipulate that while sports betting is legal throughout Canada, the regulation falls under the oversight of provincial gambling authorities. Then, there are further laws on prediction markets excluding them from leverage or margin products, they must have a minimum 30 days maturity time (ruling out short-term speculation), and the platforms must complete KYC assessments.

US CFTC Approving More Prediction Markets

WealthSimple Predict is the second prediction market app in Canada. The first was Interactive Brokers, which launched Prediction Markets back in April 1, 2025. Called Forecast Contracts on the platform, these give Canadians opportunities to trade or hedge against outcomes of real-world events, from economic data releases to climate trends. An international platform, Interactive Brokers processes around $30 million to $80 million in weekly volume, but there isn’t publicly available data on just the Canadian market.

But it is safe to say that Canada has not yet pounced on prediction markets as their Southern neighbors. In the US, prediction market hype has continued well past the 2024-25 boom, in spite of legal retaliation from state authorities, claims of insider trading, and speculation on their long-term future.

The CFTC has, in recent weeks, approved perpetual futures for prediction markets, and it has also licensed numerous new prediction markets to expand the space. Recently, sweepstakes peer to peer exchanges Novig and ProphetX both secured approval from the CFTC to launch prediction markets. And ProphetX has already relaunched its product, scrapping sweepstakes entirely for a sports-oriented prediction market app.

Kalshi’s Expansion into Perpetual Futures

The addition of perpetual futures has opened a new, let’s call it “vertical” for prediction markets to attract customers with. These were unregulated in the US until the CFTC formally approved perpetual swaps, and Kalshi was the first prediction market to officially launch this new product. Within the first week of Kalshi Perps, the trading volume hit $1 billion, and interest continues to mount.

These are financial products that have virtually no end, they can keep going until customers cash out or they need to renew their positions. On Kalshi, it is a solely crypto-trading feature, and the leverage currently ranges from around 2x up to 6x, which is not excessively high, curbing the risk levels of the product. This product adds a new dimension to prediction markets, and tied to the ever popular crypto ecosystem, it is one that could become exponentially popular.

Diverging Trends Sending Mixed Signals

The era of prediction markets operating out of a gray market is long behind us, and they are no longer the regulated novelty item that broke into sports betting. Now, prediction markets are in a divergent era, stuck in a battle between the federal government and US state authorities, and sitting on the fence between conventional sports betting and financial derivatives. They no longer need any introduction to the US market, at least, which has the know-how and expertise to manage contracts, hedge their bets, and spot price movement steam.

Mainstream audiences may have signed up for political bets and the alternative Yes/No sports contracts, but they have matured. Now, there is a greater interest in their fintech and conventional financial products, from crypto futures to staking, ETFs, and options.

At the beginning of the year, sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and before that, Fanatics, all jumped in on the prediction market sports frenzy. They have all managed to secure profits from the sports betting audiences outside the legal sports betting states, and through their existing conventional sports betting customers who have branched out into prediction market betting. CFTC’s recent approval of ProphetX and Novig seems to suggest that operators are still highly interested in capturing some of this sports market share in the overall US prediction market industry.

But there are still questions about their long-term future, especially outside the US. For in Europe, regulators recently launched a joint statement about the dangers of these markets. Many regulators have blocked prediction markets, with some outright banning them, like in France. Perhaps the discussion will be settled in the US courts, or in the market direction as perpetual futures gradually sweep in. The trends pull prediction markets in different directions, with one side pulling firmly towards sports betting, and the other side stepping into classic real-world events and financial products outside sports – as WealthSimple will offer Canadians.