Genius Sports Raises 2026 Outlook After First Operating Profit

Genius Sports raised its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance in its third-quarter results announcement on November 5, 2026, after delivering its first quarter of positive operating income. The sports data and technology company now expects 2026 revenue of $1.015 billion to $1.035 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $287 million to $297 million.

Adjusted EBITDA is a company-defined, non-GAAP measure that starts with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, then excludes items including stock-based compensation, litigation costs and transaction-related expenses. The previous guidance ranges were $1.005 billion to $1.025 billion for revenue and $285 million to $295 million for adjusted EBITDA. Management projected a 28.5% adjusted EBITDA margin at the midpoint of the new outlook.

For the quarter ended September 30, 2026, revenue rose 62.3% to $269.9 million from $166.3 million, beating the company’s $260 million guidance. Adjusted EBITDA reached $87.1 million, above $85 million guidance and up from $34.0 million a year earlier, while the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 32.3% from 20.4%, the company reported.

Operating Profit And The Remaining Net Loss

Income from operations reached $10.4 million, reversing a $25.6 million operating loss in the third quarter of 2025. The net loss still stood at $15.7 million, though it narrowed from $28.8 million. Below the operating line, Genius recorded $20.8 million of total other expense, including $19.1 million of net interest expense, followed by $7.1 million of income-tax expense. Those costs explain how positive operating income coexisted with a bottom-line loss; a $1.7 million gain from an equity-method investment provided a partial offset.

A $10.7 million year-over-year reduction in stock-based compensation, to $15.2 million, partly drove the smaller net loss. That expense represented 5.6% of quarterly revenue, down from 15.6% a year earlier, the company said.

The quarter also produced positive cash flow. Genius reported $79.4 million of operating cash flow and $53.6 million of free cash flow, representing 61.5% conversion from adjusted EBITDA. Free cash flow removes capitalized internally developed software and purchases of property, equipment and intangible assets from operating cash flow. Unlevered free cash flow, which adds back cash interest paid, was $69.4 million.

Betting And Media Expand Through Different Drivers

Betting Technology, Content & Services revenue increased 33.4% to $153.0 million from $114.6 million. Genius attributed the growth to more business with existing customers, price increases on contract renewals and renegotiations, expanded value-add services, growth in existing markets and new service offerings. Media Technology, Content & Services revenue climbed 126.4% to $116.9 million from $51.6 million, primarily because of the Legend acquisition. The segment results separate acquisition-led media expansion from the customer, pricing and product drivers identified for betting.

Founder and CEO Mark Locke linked the two segments with prediction markets in his commentary. “Our predictable Betting business, expanding Media capabilities and growing opportunities in prediction markets position us to capture greater value from the data, technology and infrastructure we have spent 25 years building,” he said.

During the third quarter, Genius partnered with Polymarket and Kalshi to provide content, integrity services and marketing solutions, and launched Prediction.com to compare probabilities, event contracts and insights. The company described Polymarket and Kalshi as the two leading prediction-market platforms.

Nine-Month Loss And Cash Outflow

Revenue for the first nine months of 2026 increased 52.3% to $653.3 million, and adjusted EBITDA rose 86.2% to $163.7 million. The net loss widened to $147.9 million from $91.0 million, while free cash flow was negative $136.2 million, compared with negative $64.1 million a year earlier, Genius reported.

Management expects approximately $260 million of cash at the end of 2026 and more than $100 million of free cash flow in the second half.

Those forecasts leave the fourth quarter as the bridge between a strong operating quarter and nine-month accounts that still show a larger net loss and negative free cash flow. Delivering the second-half cash target would show that the third quarter’s cash generation is becoming a broader full-year pattern rather than remaining a single-quarter result.