BetMGM Delays Profit Target as Prediction Markets Bite

BetMGM, the US sports-betting and online-casino operator jointly owned by MGM Resorts International (MGM ) and Entain, told investors on July 28, 2026 that it will finish the year at the bottom of its own forecasts and pushed back the profit milestone that has anchored its turnaround pitch. In its second-quarter business update, the joint venture said full-year net revenue and adjusted earnings would both land near the low end of its $2.9bn to $3.1bn and $300m to $350m guidance ranges, and that its long-promised goal of $500m in annual adjusted earnings would now arrive later than 2027.

The delayed target is the more revealing figure. BetMGM has spent two years selling its owners and the market on a clean path to $500m in adjusted earnings by 2027. Management now says a tougher competitive market, and the spread of prediction-market platforms that offer sports wagering outside the licensed system, make that timing unrealistic.

“BetMGM remains confident in delivering Adjusted EBITDA of $500 million in the coming years,” the company said, adding that “given the current market environment including impact of prediction market regulatory complexity, we believe it is prudent to assume the timing of delivery will extend beyond current 2027 expectations.”

Inside the numbers

Second-quarter net revenue rose 3% year on year to $711m, and first-half revenue reached $1.4bn, up 4%. Almost all the growth came from online casino: iGaming revenue climbed 8% to $483m, while online sports revenue was flat at $228m despite heavy betting on the NBA playoffs and the opening weeks of the World Cup. The company said sports results ran in customers’ favor, which held down its take.

Profitability went the other way. Adjusted earnings — a measure that strips out the fees BetMGM now pays its parents — fell 15% to $74m in the quarter and came in at $99m for the half.

The most striking line in the release, a 97% drop in retail revenue, is also the least important. Retail is BetMGM’s smallest segment, worth about $16m a year earlier and close to zero in the second quarter, and the fall came from a handful of large bets won by high-rollers rather than any structural decline. A similar swing dented the retail number in the first quarter. Monthly active users slipped 3% to 875,000, which the company framed as the intended result of a more selective approach to signing up and retaining players.

Why the profit goal slipped

The competitive squeeze is the story management kept returning to. Licensed sportsbooks are losing ground and paying more to acquire customers as prediction-market venues such as Kalshi offer contracts on sporting outcomes, and as rivals including FanDuel and DraftKings (DKNG ) roll out their own versions. BetMGM chief executive Adam Greenblatt has previously described those platforms as sports-betting operators in all but name. Washington is starting to weigh in, with a federal bill that would push sports wagering off prediction markets now in play.

Against that backdrop, BetMGM is leaning on the parts of the business it controls. It held a 13% share of gross gaming revenue across its active markets, split between a stronger 20% in online casino and 8% in online sports, and pointed to its iGaming catalogue and its omnichannel position in Nevada, where first-half online sports handle rose 10%.

What the owners are watching

For MGM Resorts and Entain, the update is mainly about cash. BetMGM began paying “parent fees” to its owners in 2026 once it turned sustainably profitable, and it booked $15m of those fees in the quarter and $18m across the half. It made no additional cash distributions to the parents in the second quarter, citing the timing of the sports calendar and spending on the World Cup and its new launch in Alberta’s newly regulated online market.

Both owners now report their own results: MGM Resorts posts its second-quarter figures on July 29, 2026, and Entain publishes first-half numbers on August 13, 2026. Entain, whose London-listed shares eased after the update, is already under pressure at home from higher UK gambling taxes and has cut 500 jobs to trim costs. It leaves the venture in an odd spot: still generating cash and profit, still among the largest US operators, but forced to concede that the finish line it set for itself keeps moving.