AGA estima crescimento mínimo nas apostas da NFL com o aumento dos mercados de previsão

The American Gaming Association released its betting handle estimates for the 2026 NFL season, and the results are quite surprising. The regulated, commercial sportsbooks are estimated to accrue $29.5 billion across the season, which is just a 0.3% growth on the $29.4 billion last year.

The report suggests that prediction markets will soak up the real growth, a trend that continues to worry sportsbook operators. The American Gaming Association is not a fan of these sites. It has made press releases on the dangers of prediction markets, calling them illegal sports betting platforms, and highlighting how much damage they are doing to the regulated scene. Prediction markets have, according to AGA, siphoned over $1.4 billion in potential state gaming tax revenue – a number that continues to grow.

And with recent partnerships and campaigns involving major celebs – the most viral of which right now is possibly Sydney Sweeney’s collab with Novig – prediction markets are placing themselves ahead in the race for the NFL betting markets.

AGA Predicts Little Growth for Sportsbooks

The American Gaming Association is a trade association that represents both the regulated casino and sports betting industries. It basically advocates on behalf of operators on subjects like regulation, taxation and policies that can impact the sector, and the AGA is quite outspoken on issues relating to the black market – and threats like prediction markets. AGA carries out industry research and publishes market data reports to give the public information about the condition of the gambling industry in America. And this latest publication, forecasting the NFL betting handle, is especially interesting.

According to the AGA, Americans are expected to legally wager $29.5 billion through regulated commercial sportsbooks during the 2026 NFL season, compared with $29.4 billion last season. That is, a 0.3% growth year on year. This estimate covers all NFL bets in the preseason games, futures, the regular season, playoffs and Super Bowl LXI in fevereiro de 2027.

“We’re excited for the NFL season to kickoff, as are millions of fans eager to engage with their favorite teams… But this year is different. Since the widespread launch of backdoor sports betting on so-called “prediction markets,” the growth of legal handle has stalled.”

AGA President and CEO Bill Miller

It may be underscoring the potential of sportsbooks during the NFL season, but the 2025 forecast was originally $30 billion at AGA, and fell short by a good $0.6 billion because of the rise of prediction markets and non-traditional sports betting platforms last year. So the AGA seems to be playing the pessimist for the upcoming season. For comparison, the growth recorded from 2024 to the 2025 season was around 6.5%, as the market grew from $27.6 billion up to $29.4 billion.

Differences Between This Season and Last

At the start of last season, Kalshi had just released parlay-style contracts over the summer, Polymarket had secured CFTC approval and was en route to returning to the US, and chatter suggested sportsbooks and fantasy sites were entering the space. FanDuel teased a prediction market launch with CME Group towards the end of the year, DraftKings acquired Railbird, and Fanatics partnered with Crypto.com to provide its own markets, but these all came to fruition later – in 2026 towards the end of the NFL season or right after.

This year, the focus has been on creating more visibility around prediction markets, and establishing partnerships to solidify their place in the US betting industry. Possibly to get away from all the regulatory noise in the background, with states fighting the legality of prediction markets and the federal government fighting back.

Prediction Markets Sweep in on NFL

Prediction markets have started using mainstream sports celebrities and advertising to build their profiles. Polymarket’s latest advertising campaign features major names including LeBron James, Eli Manning, Reggie Bush and Derek Jeter, with the campaign directed by Spike Lee. Novig, meanwhile, has brought actress Sydney Sweeney on board as both an equity partner and spokesperson for a major sports-focused marketing campaign.

The MLB broke ranks with other sports organisations when it formed a partnership with Polymarket back in March. Polymarket has also partnered with Major League Soccer, becoming the official and exclusive prediction-market partner of MLS, the MLS All-Star Game, MLS Cup and Leagues Cup in the U.S.

And since then, 5 MLB franchises have partnered with Kalshi, further bolstering their presence in the baseball betting space. Kalshi partnered with USTA to become the official prediction market partner of the US Open.

The NFL has bucked this trend of sports organisations partnering with prediction markets. The league has barred prediction market advertisements from its broadcasts while continuing to accept conventional sportsbook advertising. The NFL has also raised concerns about markets involving individual players and officiating decisions because of the potential integrity risks.

The AGA’s Warning About Prediction Markets

The AGA has described prediction markets offering sports contracts as “backdoor sports betting”, arguing that companies such as Kalshi are marketing gambling-style products as financial investments. The organisation says regulated sportsbooks are required to follow state rules covering areas such as responsible gaming, consumer protection, advertising and integrity monitoring. Its concern is that prediction markets can avoid many of those obligations by operating under the federal derivatives framework instead.

There is also a straightforward financial argument behind the AGA’s position. State-regulated sportsbooks generate gaming tax revenue, while prediction-market contracts do not currently feed into state gambling-tax systems in the same way.

In a report on prediction markets, the AGA stated:

• User are 3x more likely than sportsbook users to describe their activity as “investment”
• 25% of event contract users fund activity from investment budgets
• 85% of Americans say these are not financial instruments but gambling
• In 2025: 15% of sports betting ads did not feature responsible gambling messages
• In 2026: This percentage jumped up to 43%

The report suggested that the general public in the US is also aligned on the risks of prediction markets, though these platforms still attract increasing sums of money, endangering users and the regulated space.

More Markets Cropping Up All the Time

Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC and have to obtain DCM licenses to offer their services. Platforms that obtain a DCM license can either launch its own platform, or it can offer B2B services to operators, who will create customer-facing prediction market sites. The CFTC has had an extremely busy summer, as more B2B platforms and operators have submitted their interest to obtain these license and enter the space – giving chase to Kalshi and Polymarket.

The CFTC’s current register shows Juice Exchange (JuiceX), Water Street Labs (currently being acquired by Fanatics), Optex Markets, Ludlow Exchange (Novig) and ProphetX all receiving DCM designation between June and julho de 2026. Meanwhile, companies including 365Prediction, Eventive III, Bullish Markets, Limitless Markets, Six Markets, TLD Markets and Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange (Matchbook) have applications pending.

The list is still changing quickly. Robinhood recently expanded its prediction-market operation through partnerships with Crypto.com and OG.com, agreeing to route certain football event contracts through OG.com’s federally regulated exchange.

It is a lot more confusing than the regulated sportsbook industry – where an operator must obtain a license to enter a state. These licenses may have conditions such as tethers to local organisations, a requirement to partner with local tribes, and there may be a limited number of licenses to restrict the size of the industry. But this varies on a state by state basis. Prediction market DCMs apply to the entire country, and companies can obtain DCM permissions and then partner with other brands, or even create collaborations between multiple providers.

NFL Betting Experiences

The NFL betting experience is changing, and with more prediction market launches lurking around the corner, the space is set to become even more competitive and complex. Traditional sportsbooks remain vastly more established, and the AGA’s $29.5 billion estimate demonstrates the size of the regulated market. However, prediction platforms are moving aggressively into the same sports, signing partnerships, launching marketing campaigns and developing products that resemble familiar forms of sports betting.

Battles are still being fought in courtrooms and state legislatures, but with the 2026 NFL season now underway, they are also playing out directly in front of sports fans. The NFL has so far held its ground against prediction markets, but as more sportsbooks integrate these and more operators crop up, it will become difficult to keep ignoring. Prediction markets have shown that they are not just there to sweep up revenue in states where sports betting is still not legal (the biggest are Texas and California). They have shown that even in the states with large and established regulated betting sectors, operators should be wary of losing out to this alternative betting product.