L’AGA prevede una crescita minima delle scommesse NFL con l’impennata dei mercati predittivi

L’American Gaming Association ha pubblicato le sue stime sul volume delle scommesse per la stagione NFL 2026, e i risultati sono piuttosto sorprendenti. Si stima che i bookmaker commerciali regolamentati accumulino 29,5 miliardi di dollari durante la stagione, con una crescita dello 0,3% rispetto ai 29,4 miliardi dell’anno scorso.

Il rapporto suggerisce che i mercati predittivi assorbiranno la crescita reale, una tendenza che continua a preoccupare gli operatori dei bookmaker. L’American Gaming Association non è simpatica di questi siti. Ha emesso comunicati stampa sui pericoli dei mercati predittivi, definendoli piattaforme di scommesse sportive illegali e sottolineando i danni che arrecano al settore regolamentato. Secondo l’AGA, i mercati predittivi hanno sottratto oltre 1,4 miliardi di dollari di potenziali entrate fiscali statali sul gioco d’azzardo – una cifra in costante aumento.

E con le recenti partnership e campagne che coinvolgono celebrità di alto profilo – la più virale al momento è probabilmente la collaborazione di Sydney Sweeney con Novig – i mercati predittivi si stanno posizionando in vantaggio nella corsa ai mercati delle scommesse NFL.

L’AGA prevede poca crescita per i bookmaker

L’American Gaming Association è un’associazione di categoria che rappresenta sia l’industria dei casinò regolamentati sia quella delle scommesse sportive. Sostiene gli operatori su temi come regolamentazione, tassazione e politiche che possono influenzare il settore, ed è molto esplicita sui problemi legati al mercato nero e alle minacce dei mercati predittivi. L’AGA conduce ricerche di settore e pubblica rapporti sui dati di mercato per fornire al pubblico informazioni sulla condizione dell’industria del gioco d’azzardo negli Stati Uniti. Questa ultima pubblicazione, che prevede il volume delle scommesse NFL, è particolarmente interessante.

Secondo l’AGA, Si prevede che gli americani scommettano legalmente 29,5 miliardi di dollari attraverso i bookmaker commerciali regolamentati durante la stagione NFL 2026, rispetto a 29,4 miliardi la scorsa stagione. È una crescita dello 0,3% anno su anno. Questa stima copre tutti i scommesse NFL nelle partite di preseason, nei contratti futures, nella stagione regolare, nei playoff e nel Super Bowl LXI di febbraio 2027.

Siamo entusiasti dell’inizio della stagione NFL, così come milioni di fan desiderosi di interagire con le loro squadre preferite… Ma quest’anno è diverso. Da quando è stato lanciato su larga scala il cosiddetto “mercato predittivo” come backdoor per le scommesse sportive, la crescita del volume legale si è arrestata.

Presidente e CEO dell’AGA Bill Miller

Potrebbe mettere in evidenza il potenziale dei bookmaker durante la stagione NFL, ma la previsione del 2025 era originariamente di 30 miliardi di dollari secondo l’AGA, e si è ridotta di circa 0,6 miliardi a causa dell’ascesa dei mercati predittivi e delle piattaforme di scommesse sportive non tradizionali lo scorso anno. Quindi l’AGA sembra adottare un atteggiamento pessimista per la prossima stagione. Per fare un confronto, la crescita registrata dal 2024 alla stagione 2025 è stata di circa il 6,5%, con il mercato passato da 27,6 miliardi a 29,4 miliardi.

Differenze tra questa stagione e la scorsa

All’inizio della scorsa stagione, Kalshi aveva appena lanciato contratti in stile parlay durante l’estate, Polymarket aveva ottenuto l’approvazione della CFTC ed era in procinto di tornare negli Stati Uniti, e si vociferava che i bookmaker e i siti fantasy stessero entrando nello spazio. FanDuel ha accennato a una lancio di mercato predittivo con CME Group verso la fine dell’anno,, e Fanatics ha collaborato con Crypto.com per fornire i propri mercati, ma tutto ciò si è realizzato più tardi – nel 2026 verso la fine della stagione NFL o subito dopo.

Quest’anno, l’attenzione si è concentrata sul creare maggiore visibilità intorno ai mercati predittivi e sul stabilire partnership per consolidare la loro presenza nell’industria delle scommesse negli Stati Uniti. Probabilmente per allontanarsi da tutto ilrumore normativo di fondo,

I mercati predittivi invadono la NFL

Prediction markets have started using mainstream sports celebrities and advertising to build their profiles. Polymarket’s latest advertising campaign features major names including LeBron James, Eli Manning, Reggie Bush and Derek Jeter, with the campaign directed by Spike Lee. Novig, meanwhile, has brought actress Sydney Sweeney on board as both an equity partner and spokesperson for a major sports-focused marketing campaign.

The MLB broke ranks with other sports organisations when it formed a partnership with Polymarket back in March. Polymarket has also partnered with Major League Soccer, becoming the official and exclusive prediction-market partner of MLS, the MLS All-Star Game, MLS Cup and Leagues Cup in the U.S.

And since then, 5 MLB franchises have partnered with Kalshi, further bolstering their presence in the baseball betting space. Kalshi partnered with USTA to become the official prediction market partner of the US Open.

The NFL has bucked this trend of sports organisations partnering with prediction markets. The league has barred prediction market advertisements from its broadcasts while continuing to accept conventional sportsbook advertising. The NFL has also raised concerns about markets involving individual players and officiating decisions because of the potential integrity risks.

The AGA’s Warning About Prediction Markets

The AGA has described prediction markets offering sports contracts as “backdoor sports betting”, arguing that companies such as Kalshi are marketing gambling-style products as financial investments. The organisation says regulated sportsbooks are required to follow state rules covering areas such as responsible gaming, consumer protection, advertising and integrity monitoring. Its concern is that prediction markets can avoid many of those obligations by operating under the federal derivatives framework instead.

There is also a straightforward financial argument behind the AGA’s position. State-regulated sportsbooks generate gaming tax revenue, while prediction-market contracts do not currently feed into state gambling-tax systems in the same way.

In a report on prediction markets, the AGA stated:

• User are 3x more likely than sportsbook users to describe their activity as “investment”
• 25% of event contract users fund activity from investment budgets
• 85% of Americans say these are not financial instruments but gambling
• In 2025: 15% of sports betting ads did not feature responsible gambling messages
• In 2026: This percentage jumped up to 43%

The report suggested that the general public in the US is also aligned on the risks of prediction markets, though these platforms still attract increasing sums of money, endangering users and the regulated space.

More Markets Cropping Up All the Time

Prediction markets are regulated by the CFTC and have to obtain DCM licenses to offer their services. Platforms that obtain a DCM license can either launch its own platform, or it can offer B2B services to operators, who will create customer-facing prediction market sites. The CFTC has had an extremely busy summer, as more B2B platforms and operators have submitted their interest to obtain these license and enter the space – giving chase to Kalshi and Polymarket.

The CFTC’s current register shows Juice Exchange (JuiceX), Water Street Labs (currently being acquired by Fanatics), Optex Markets, Ludlow Exchange (Novig) and ProphetX all receiving DCM designation between June and luglio 2026. Meanwhile, companies including 365Prediction, Eventive III, Bullish Markets, Limitless Markets, Six Markets, TLD Markets and Smarkets Board of Trade Exchange (Matchbook) have applications pending.

The list is still changing quickly. Robinhood recently expanded its prediction-market operation through partnerships with Crypto.com and OG.com, agreeing to route certain football event contracts through OG.com’s federally regulated exchange.

It is a lot more confusing than the regulated sportsbook industry – where an operator must obtain a license to enter a state. These licenses may have conditions such as tethers to local organisations, a requirement to partner with local tribes, and there may be a limited number of licenses to restrict the size of the industry. But this varies on a state by state basis. Prediction market DCMs apply to the entire country, and companies can obtain DCM permissions and then partner with other brands, or even create collaborations between multiple providers.

NFL Betting Experiences

The NFL betting experience is changing, and with more prediction market launches lurking around the corner, the space is set to become even more competitive and complex. Traditional sportsbooks remain vastly more established, and the AGA’s $29.5 billion estimate demonstrates the size of the regulated market. However, prediction platforms are moving aggressively into the same sports, signing partnerships, launching marketing campaigns and developing products that resemble familiar forms of sports betting.

Battles are still being fought in courtrooms and state legislatures, but with the 2026 NFL season now underway, they are also playing out directly in front of sports fans. The NFL has so far held its ground against prediction markets, but as more sportsbooks integrate these and more operators crop up, it will become difficult to keep ignoring. Prediction markets have shown that they are not just there to sweep up revenue in states where sports betting is still not legal (the biggest are Texas and California). They have shown that even in the states with large and established regulated betting sectors, operators should be wary of losing out to this alternative betting product.