Console Revenue Would Be Flat in 2026 Without Grand Theft Auto 6

The console games market will grow in 2026, according to Newzoo’s newly released Global Games Market Report. And essentially all of that growth hangs on a single release. Strip Grand Theft Auto 6 out of the forecast and console revenue lands flat against 2025, Newzoo’s director of market intelligence, Emmanuel “Manu” Rosier, told GamesIndustry.biz in an interview at Gamescom 2026 published 2026년 8월 27일.

Rosier pointed to two forces behind console’s current trajectory: Nintendo’s Switch 2 and the arrival of Rockstar Games’ flagship title this year. Of the two, the Rockstar release is doing the heavier lifting in Newzoo’s model.

“If in 2026, let’s say Grand Theft Auto 6 wasn’t coming out, then you would have a platform going down year-on-year,” Rosier said. “GTA is really helping consoles achieve positive growth in 2026.”

The report projects Grand Theft Auto 6 will lift full-game spending on console in 2026. Rosier also said the launch will eat into sales of competing releases, a dynamic already visible in the number of publishers that have shifted their own dates away from its window.

Mobile remains the industry’s largest platform by a wide margin.

The Story So Far for Grand Theft Auto 6

The commercial run-up has been building for months. Pre-orders opened 2026년 6월 25일, and Newzoo estimated the game took in $260 million in its first week of availability, a campaign Gaming.net covered as on pace for a record. Buyers have since skewed heavily toward the premium end, choosing the $100 Ultimate Edition over the standard version by a nine-to-one margin.

Publisher Take-Two Interactive has already been leaning on the franchise in its reported results, holding its full-year outlook in 2026년 8월 as NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto offset a declining mobile segment. The game itself launches 2026년 11월 19일 for PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, according to Rockstar’s official Grand Theft Auto VI page, which shows the current date was set in an announcement on 2025년 11월 6일.

By the Numbers

• $46.9 billion: Newzoo’s 2026 console revenue forecast, up 5.1% year-on-year
• 17.5% — the forecast increase in full-game spending on console driven by Grand Theft Auto 6, the strongest growth of any business model in the report
• $121.1 billion — Newzoo’s 2026 mobile revenue forecast, up 6.8%, equal to 57% of global games revenue
• $260 million — Newzoo’s estimate of Grand Theft Auto 6’s first-week pre-order revenue

How Newzoo Built the Grand Theft Auto 6 Forecast

Rosier was direct about the limits of the projection. He said Newzoo has no certainty about what becomes of GTA Online in the coming months, noting that Take-Two has not communicated how or when players might move from the current game to the new one, even though the existing title continues to generate substantial revenue.

The firm’s 2027 forecast does build in a PC launch for Grand Theft Auto 6, which Rosier flagged as a significant driver for that year. Beyond that, he said, the model rests on the historical record: Newzoo is projecting based on how the previous Grand Theft Auto title performed after release. He added that the strength of Grand Theft Auto as a catalogue title means the story does not end when 2026 does, pushing back on the idea of a one-year spike followed by a correction.

On pricing, Rosier argued demand for the game is unusually insensitive to cost because there is only one GTA 6, and said one publisher moving first on price tends to pull the rest of the market along.

What Happens Next

Rockstar has an extended look at Grand Theft Auto VI scheduled for 2026년 8월 27일 at 3 PM ET, per the game’s official page. The full release follows 2026년 11월 19일 on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, the date Newzoo’s entire console growth figure now effectively depends on.